all legendary market wins once looked like TELADOC; no earnings, no firm valuation, maybe some hype, hope, and something else–an idea maybe. Some have near inevitability. TELADOC seems to be inevitable, and on time. TELADOC has all of that and much more.
One year sales growth–109%. Three-year sales growth–75%. That’s revenue. That’s TELADOC. Here’s the highly plausible TELADOC CEO Jason Gorevic following the release of Q1, ’18 quarterly results;
“I’m very pleased with our performance during the intense 2018 flu season, providing yet another proof point for the inevitability of virtual care as a critical component of the healthcare system,”–Jason Gorevic, TELADOC CEO
The settlers of the American west didn’t have spas or sushi. Stock settlers don’t have P/Es or a Peg ratio. We’re not going to get those here. Speculative stock is pioneering, meaning rough. But we have a stair-steeping revenue record and a story, and footprints–charts.
How about the online education industry? Is that industry a corollary for online medicine? Yes, except virtual medicine will be run better, funded better, more respected, and will inevitably include everyone.
The online education business has a deservedly bad reputation, for many reasons. The industry’s been plagued by financial fraud, very low graduation and in-field placement rates, and customers/students left with crippling debt. None of that is a real surprise, when one realizes the industry is primarily owned and run by private equity.
Virtual medical care seems poised to disrupt medicine precisely like e-commerce did to brick-and-mortar.
Medicine is a very different business, one not primarily controlled by private equity. Every player in the field operates under heavy pressure to cut costs, increase productivity, and increase efficiency.
How efficient could it be to handle many cases online? Simple answer–extremely. How much value could there be in a nearly instant virtual connection to a specialist–any specialist? Those are but two gems offered by the virtual approach to medicine. The time savings alone are massive, if not determinate. Wider access to specialists will prove lifesaving
How much of your time, wits, and productivity, have you lost parked on your can in some cramped room full of coughing children? What they’re coughing up you don’t want. Think flu, or worse. Who doesn’t resent 90 minutes routinely wasted by schedulers? Right. And you’re not alone–and TELADOC knows this.
TELADOC is speculative. Any market cap totaling $3.7b is speculative, very speculative. TELADOC also has no earnings, oops, we mean they have negative earnings. Yet that is the very nature of such companies in early days. The early days are also where the very biggest money is made when such companies explode their growth. Some mistakenly refer to such as “easy money.” Right.
Don’t look for earnings here. TELADOC is speculative–in early day. Instead watch revenue growth(109%y/y), “paid memberships,” and “Total Visits.”
In place of earnings we turn to revenue. TELADOC posted Q1, 2018 revenue growth of 109%. Any way you slice it that’s very fast growth. In fact the company has posted very strong revenue growth year after year since 2015.
TELADOC guides for adjusted EBITDA going positive this year at $7-10m. Full year revenue is projected at $350-360m.
TELADOC is using the now widely employed membership model. Like NFLX membership growth represents the company’s prime metric after sales. Q1, 2018 paid memberships totaled 20.8 million, posting a growth rate of 41%. Full year ’18 membership guidance calls for 22-24 million at year’s end.”Total Visits,” the other main metric hit 606,000, posting a 57% growth rate.
The actual and estimated revenues create a rising staircase–2015-2019E. REVENUE(millions, USD): 2015-77.4m, 2016-123m, 2017-233m, 2018-358.7mE, 2019-452E. The corresponding revenue percentage growth rates are: 77.8%, 59.2%, 89.4%, 53.8% ’18E, 26% ’19E.
“Can you see the doctor now?”
UPDATE; 6-14-18: TELADOC(NYSE: TDOC) HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH INTRADAY $60.10, UP FROM THE PREVIOUS $59.75. WAIT FOR A BETTER ENTRY POINT. THAT MAY REQUIRE TIME. BUT THEN, THIS IS EARLY TDOC DAYS. Sj.