Alibaba
is growing on all cylinders, mostly all above 50%. Back in 2017 Amazon Prime Day broke the $1 billion dollar ceiling. It was fabulous really, the substance of dreams and tears and incredible execution on all fronts. All true.
Alibaba shrewdly slid itself in beside the Chinese “Single’s Day.” This staggering retailer transformed Single’s Day into the biggest on and off line shopping day of the year. In 2017 BABA collected $25.4 billion on that day.
On Tuesday 6-26-18 we lock-in a small gain by selling Alibaba at $189.75. We watched it rise back above $192. Our reasons are two-fold. Alibaba is in the middle of a trade dispute that has no end in sight, and zeri visibility.
The chart below demonstrates the current technical condition for Alibaba shares. We see multiple bearish technical indicators, as labeled. We believe tensions are behind the tread reversal.
The trend is your friend. There are times to ride out the sway, and others to go away. It’s always a judgement call.
BABA, 6-26-18. Close.
- One of the “Seven Deadly Sins” in chess is under-estimating your opponent. As investors our opponent is market tension. Trade wars qualify at the highest level(SJChart.)
The current fundamental vigor of Alibaba doesn’t register in it’s highly-challenged share price. BABA’s future is luminescent–as bright as could be hoped for. Perhaps the most serious problem investors face here is the “law of large numbers.”
Alibaba’s chart displays a clear bearish trend reversal. Bearish price action as price falls through support at its’ 50 Day simple moving average. Again bearish.
That law about large numbers is as real as the law of trade wars. Wreckage is assured. Most of the most direct and severe damage can be dodged. That’s why we sold Alibaba now. We’ll be back, after a tweet from the president.
Alibaba(NYSE: BABA.) STOCKjAW out at $189.75. NON-CAGR gain(following earlier profit taking) 25%.
Thanks for reading.
