No
shortage exists. Glance behind. The line begins at your back and everyone of those hucksters wants to help you, for a price. Sign-up for yet another ass-wipe newsletter. They have a seminar–just need your credit card.
We want nothing from you. Here are the facts as we best see them. Our market is expensive. That means danger. No one ever got paid a freaking extra dime for playing on the highway. This market’s a highway.
No definitive warnings are ever issued prior to fugly market resets. They happen like earthquakes. They also leave behind destruction. No shortage of doomsday hucksters exists either. We’re not calling for doomsday. We’re saying prices are high, and high prices always come down. Many times they do so in a sickening gut-wrenching manner. That’s history, not opinion.
The
NYSE is parked in the city above. The Dow, NASDAQ, and Standard and Pores, indexes represent real companies operating under real and constantly shifting conditions. As a result, the value of those companies fluctuates, along with the value and price of their representative shares. Those share trade in the aforementioned indexes. The point? Companies are real assets, but their share price value is always in question.
Share prices are not absolutes. Prices are constantly moving targets, set by supply and demand. Demand can dry up in seconds, leaving behind only a stain. Think Enron.
The value or price of any share yesterday is irrelevant. The real locus of value in any stock lies in the agreement of it’s worth, or the ongoing willingness of others to buy said. That’s it. When the market stops valuing a company’s shares, the shares cease to have true transferable value. The point? This market is too expensive to buy. Period.
One
of the planet’s oldest and most beloved icons burned yesterday. Notre Dame in Paris was consumed by fire. A thousand years it stood as the City of Light grew up around its sturdy buttresses. It’s value was incalculable. Yet now? How much is Notre’ Dame worth now? The point? Enron was valued in the billions, until its’ massive fraud was uncovered. Overnight once highly valued shares in the company became virtually worthless.
Markets are as unpredictable as people. Risk is always with us. The current market risk is downside risk. As a whole our market is over-priced. All ETFs that track our indexes, like S&P 500 tracking ETFs, are over-priced. That means when, not if, the market adjusts, those elevated valuations will be crushed.
It’s better to own nothing than to pay too much. It’s better to own nothing than to have a high cost basis, an average share price that’s too high.
The stock market check for investing or trading credentials at the door. All are allowed in. Thus all are subject to full market risk. High prices means big risk. That’s now. You are not paid more for taking on the exaggerated risk of this elevated market. The point? This market is dangerous, and you won’t be paid extra for that. Think twice.
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