comes. The heat boils up your neck and beads down your back, and then it’s over. Once again days shorten. Again we miss the blazing light and glance quickly back wondering where it all went. A perspective falls naturally into place.
Summers don’t come off a rack. They are not stock. Each is unique, in its’ own way. Patterns shift. Yet each year we stare past a sunglass and feel a solidarity with others–people we don’t know, yet sense a unity with in this thing we know as life, and heat, and prolonged unfolding. Amen to that, because together we’re at our strongest. That’s the big thing that brings us to this page.
Stocks are only part of our days. But we love it–honestly we do, or we wouldn’t bother. You’ve heard it before “Sell in May and go away.” Summer action is a slower, even sleepy, time, traditionally. Many money managers actually go on vacation. Funds go on auto-pilot. The French abandon their desks. They flee a heated Paris for a month and live. God knows the Italians do. They understand. Perhaps there’s a clue here, for us, concerning stocks, and a sweaty stressed stupid market, in need of a flighty butterfly heart. It’s summertime.
path is often challenging and some people will do everything they can to help. Others will stand like “Road Work” flagmen and only warn of trouble. Others will man “Detour” signs because they’re shilling for gimmicky “targeted” ETFs sold off some folding card table down the road they’re rerouting you toward.
What we individually do is up to us. Directions differ, as do results. We seek counsel, and always seek to up our own game. Why? Because in the final analysis, the outcome is eternally on us, and only us.
Back in 2008 our markets began a decline destined to become “The Great Recession.” That funk proceeded to devour over 30% of our investment account while we stood by and watched as if our hands were painted on. That was then and now also looks troubling. Many will tell you that “your first loss is your best loss.” That bromide is intended as a reference to a loss in an individual position. We apply said to collective portfolio losses as well.
Eye witness accounts tell of the orchestra playing on the deck of the Titanic as it sank in the iceberg-strewn north Atlantic. Offering a soundtrack to disaster victims seems similar to reminding market passengers to “invest in quality and maintain a long term perspective” as the black waves of declining price-action slaps at their shined shoes. Meanwhile, shares of stellar companies such as Amazon and ETSY are slaughtered and choad like Luckin(LK) floats toward the top. Hum…
The “Beat” generation blended into San Francisco’s broiling “Summer of Love.” It was a hippie thing. 1967. The streets were Haight and Ashbury, not Wall. That summer soured. Between January and August “the gathering” swelled into a mob of 100,000. Chaos. That summer on the bay ended in squalor, personal mismanagement, and governmental hysteria. 2019’s Summer of Stocks appears to be lining up in much the same unmanageable manner. Any “love” shareholders receive now will not be “free.” It will be paid for by sour sweat. Our market has moved beyond “technical” to treacherous. Chirping birds will suggest otherwise, a few. But we’ve ceased listening. All we do is watch the numbers as they fall.
This market’s going further down. That’s called “an opinion.” Yet when the waves are slapping over your so-called “defensive positions” you tell us. Can you hear the music? When the so-called defensive plays, Communication, Utilities, and even Real Estate, are now routinely taking turns on the market bottom, there’s music playing. That occurred yesterday, again. Watch for that, yes–again.
Perhaps lightening up could help. Take profits. Raise cash. Riding pries down does not create superior returns. Buying lower, once the chaos begins to abate does. Enjoy summer and leave the global trade warring to politicians. Politics are driving now. We call that “the macros.” Keep your best and flog the rest. We did. We only hold cash/CDs and eTSEY.com(ETSY.)
Some will say “we don’t want to alarm anyone.” Panic never pays. However history clearly shows that the very people paid to inform of danger routinely assume a posture of pure silence, at the very moment they are paid to be speaking. Think the CDC and the FDA for example. On the other side we have the Federal Reserve hydra, which is incapable of shutting up even as the whitecaps whip at their every useless statement. That simply proves that twelve heads are often less helpful then a single composed one.
Materials, and industrials, comprised three of the top four sectors on Wednesday. Yet all indexes posted significant losses, even after clawing back up. Watch. Today the sector parade will switch leadership all over again. And? And that’s known as chaos–an S&P now below the key technical 2850 level, a market as a whole in desperate search of a direction. There isn’t one, not a constructive one. And that’s the point. Going down. We’re now waiting for this down elevator to near an emotional capitulation bottom. We can all buy back in then, at superior prices. We will. Best of luck and good investing.
“Red flag day”