Our Portfolio. Really.

Our Portfolio 4

Banner, Link to the Real

JUNE 16, 2020
Link to the Real.  It Pays.
https://stockjaw.com

 

Our

recovery from the COVID drop has been spectacular, quick, complex, and shifting. The market’s broadening, now, including the financials, and cyclicals. And what’s that about? Speculation, not economic expansion. But it also reflects investors repositioning at smart prices for more recovery.

 

Big names rock daily now. And what’s that?  It’s a mix of the run too far, the too expensive, the about to be repeatedly beaten. Think the air and cruise lines, and the raging SaaS cloud plays. The easy money’s already been made. For the non-secular spec plays, it’s all battle field roulette going forward. Look for the massive cracks and gaping holes in travel/hospitality businesses.  Look for corrections for many things 50% higher now.

 

Trading is a new discipline to us and we traded furiously for three weeks. Then we put our hands in our pockets and simply hawked over the action for the past two. Below is what’s left. We made money and mistakes. We lost no money. Why? In part because we didn’t sell what sunk below the waves. Credibility flows from clarity. See that now in “Our Portfolio. Really.”

 

 

berlin-4068968_1920
Trading ‘s like riding the Berlin Metro. When you buy a ticket you’re going on a ride. But it’s hard to be sure to where.

As

most know and we’ve just stated, we have recently begun trading, on top of investing.  Only appropriately so.  They go hand-in-hand.  Trading however is an entire set of disciplines, many new to us.  Trading also means rapid portfolio turnover.  That’s in part why our current hand is not diversified.  Think gold miners–too many gold miners.  In several recent pieces we’ve provided the thrills of our new trading vice.  Now we provide the current position of our on-going investing journey.  Far larger study charts are newly posted under our utterly rebuilt “Portfolio” link;

https://stockjaw.com/our-portfolio-stockjaw-com-equity-portfolio/

 

Barrick Gold-

GOLD, 6-15-20 weekly
Barrick Gold’s been Jim Cramer’s pick of gold miners for several months now. On June 15th he referred to Newmont( Corp.NEW) as a “best of breed” gold miner, while interviewing Newmont CEO Tom Palmer. Barrick’s big, and sports a low”all-in sustaining cost.” Yet, in our opinion, Kirkland Lake Gold possesses the best fundamentals in the business, and has for some time(SJChart.)

 

-Newmont Corporation-

NEM, 6-15-20, WEEKLY
Newmont’s traded very well over the past six months–up 38%. That’s precisely why we took a flyer on it. We were mistaken. Our current position in NEM represents a clear failure of discipline, no doubt(SJChart.)

 

-Kirkland Lake Gold-

KL, 6-15-20, weekly
Kirkland Lake Gold is an example of fundamental perfection. KL’s problem is a shareholder base struggling to understand or trust managerial guidance. Prior to the acquisition of Detour Gold in 2019, KL had posted three straight years of nonstop share price growth, as you can see in the weekly chart above(SJChart.)

 

-American Electric Power-

AEP, 6-15-20, weekly
Playing “defense” isn’t risk-free. American Electric power has traded poorly for weeks. It lives below the S&P, substantially. When you fail to match the index it’s known as “under-performance.” Yes, you get the dividend, and in the longer run AEP’s a winner; up 25.2% over three years, and 80.9% over five, or 16% a year for five straight. Wonderful. That’s why picked it up. At times we’re impatient. That’s never paid. Over the last year AEP’s lost 6.9% with the dividend(SJChart.)

 

-AT&T-

T, 6-16-20, weekly
The telecoms have long been viewed as a “defensive” play. T’s 6.82% dividend is massive but perhaps not sustainable at a current payout ratio of 104.12%. Even if it is payable, it’s not creating any long term gains. T’s total return is negative over the past year and down 6.9% over three. Over five it’s returned 16.3% as of 6-16-20. That’s 3.2% a year. Yet T offers two plays(SJChart.)

-Take-Two Interactive Inc.-

TTWO, 6-16-20 weekly
TTWO is a COVID star. Take-Two’s resilience amid the stark COVID drop is amazing. Yet it makes sense. Where they go from here is now the question for shareholders, such as us. Again, our choice to jump in was witless. That’s why they call it discipline, and the struggle to display said never ends(SJChart.)

 

-Alteryx Inc.-

AYX, 6-16-20. weekly
Along with Take-Two, Alteryx and the secular growth cloud stories have held up and surged amid the pandemic. We’ve play AYX repeatedly for very nice gains. The September revaluation of many tech stars brought AYX down hard. However that came on the heels of a gain of over 20% in August. As is visible in this weekly chart, the price-action now challenges that previous high of September ’19(SJChart.)

 

-NVIDIA Corp.-

NVDA, 6-16-20, WEEKLY
NVIDIA’s post COVID climb has broken trend, yet shareholder love is near cult-level. Think Tesla. 1. Back in late September ’18 NVDA launched it’s eighth-generation Turing chip architecture. Their new gaming card was based on the new design. Morgan Stanley reported the card’s performance as “disappointing.” That was then(SJChart.)

 

-Advanced Micro Devices-

AMD, 6-16-20, weekly
AMD is building at 9 nanometers and smaller, and that’s smaller than main long-time rival Intel. Their graphics chips(GPUs) will be featured in this year’s video game refresh cycle–second half of ’20. Meanwhile, their laptop business is strong, along with their shares(SJChart.)

 

-Microsoft Corp.-

MSFT, 6-16-20, weekly
Microsoft has turned out to be a place in the sun. It’s COVID drop proved shallow with a V-shaped recovery. Over the past three months MSFT has returned 31.97%. What’s not to love?(SJChart.)

 

 

 

 

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Additional resources:

Investopedia.com.  Seriously Wonderful.  Fact.
http://www.investopedia.com/
Charles Schwab.  In Our Opinion, the best broker going.
https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/client_home
STOCKJAW.COM EARNESTLY THANKS YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST AND WISHES YOU THE VERY BEST.  THE WORLD BEING WHAT IT IS, WE MUST POST THE FOLLOWING:  ALL CONTENT ON STOCKJAW.COM IS PURELY FOR GENERAL EDUCATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ALONE.  ANY ACTION TAKEN BY ANY READER IS THE SOLE CHOICE AND RESPONSIBILITY OF SAID ACTOR.
Be careful.  Do the work.  Have patience, with yourself.  Never put your dreams away.

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