GrowGeneration. Blasted, For No Good Reason?

AUGUST 17, 2021. Sales are the front door while earnings the back. Everyone knows that, and all aim to expand each. Only the few do. GrowGeneration did that Q2, and unlike ever before. Q2 revenue up 190%. Huh? Adjusted EBITDA up 229% Gun slingers.
“Anything else” you ask? How ’bout same-store sales up 60%? Right.
Any company would pray to dark powers for a taste of such success. What’d GRWG actually get for achieving all that? County jail and a flaming bag of cat scat. We’ll show you that.
This Denver-based retailer of end-to–end specialty hydro/organic gardening gear has been derisively called a “roll-up,” yet it just keeps rolling, and never more than now. So we’re askin’ was “GrowGeneration. Blasted, For No Good Reason?”

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You go to my head. Airbnb.

MARCH 16, 2021. Imagine if masks were once again called “bikinis.”
What if you could again sway with the crowd? What if real people replaced cardboard cutouts at the game? What crowd? What game?
Are you mad? Right. Well, Pfizer, Moderna, and JNJ are now very busy beating this filthy virus like some sprawling steel drum. Living outdoors and out loud are becoming very real again, even nearly naked. And then?
How about boat Tapas off Spain, goat yoga in Greece, a food tour by bike anywhere?
All that’s coming and Airbnb does all those and much more. After all, they’re “connected.” ABNB creates connections. Airbnb is a non-stop shop for locales, lodging, and curated “Experiences” led by locals. Whadda you get? A place to stay and a place to go.
The lid’s just coming off of this lockdown and people are whacked raving mad to live again, together, outdoors, and out loud. Airbnb is already there, everywhere. A single taste and “You go to my head. Airbnb.”

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Dividend Destroyer. The Illusion of a Payout.

MARCH 2, 2021. Crowbar in a sand pile. It’s dividend-simple. Dividends are the auto-joy of investing success, a sweet cash kicker, a bankable confetti storm of goodness. Many employ such as a livable income. AT&T lives on such income investors. Own it?
Dividends can be all of that, except when they’re not. We’re not talking about div problems like Ford, or Macy’s, both of whom completely discarded dividend payouts. That’s the obvious hole in the boat. When cash is king and more is better you win. Cash or additional shares, both mean a larger pie right? Market wisdom says that “Forty percent of the S&P500’s return comes from reinvested dividends.” So how can that go wrong? The two stone ways when dividends are not a win. Even the big names fail here. Think “Dividend Destroyer. The Illusion of a Payout.”

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PINS. Driving Point.

FEBRUARY 26, 2021. Soaring growth seems everywhere just now. O.K. well, big growth isn’t created equal. Big growth can blow your socks off in a day, or burn your portfolio to the waterline. Or? You can turn to pure value, and watch it creep cautiously toward cozy single-digit annual returns. Or? You could look at Pinterest. As of pre-market Friday PINS has returned 129% over the past six months. Is that value? Pinterest is not just offering soaring returns. The stunning growth is underpinned by real fundamentals. Think 76% y/y revenue growth. That’s value right? And that’s why we’re talking “PINS. Driving Point.”

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Zero to Eighty% in Six Months. Ford.

NOVEMBER 19, 2020. Pop the hood on your car and sneak a peek. Right. WTF? The once recognizable is gone. Car guts look very different now, as does the car business. Ford’s looking in too–into it’s own business. What are they seeing? “Trucks and SUVs–all good. Love that. The dumpy sedan’s dead. Broom that.” What else? The Chinese operation’s politicized and chaotic. And then there’s our shareholder base.
Customers love the F-150, and batteries too. F’s blending those next year. The new Mustang Mach E’s flat rubber-burning evil, with no range. The revamped Ford Explorer launch was a monkey rodeo. Jesus. Empty showroom floors never please, or sell. That means you have to “incentivize” customers to buy cars they can’t touch. They did, incentivize. The press and public excitement surrounding the new Bronco is through the roof.
Meanwhile F’s share price has rocked heavenward by 80% in just six months. That’s promising. Or perhaps extended? From its’ Dearborn base just outside of Detroit, Ford’s shooting for the moon with EVs, and running on pure adrenaline. The real threat of extinction will do that to a company. Extinction feels very real when you sport a $4 share price–$3.96 back on March 23rd this year.
Well, again, that puny share price has been seriously juiced since by a crazed confluence of market factors. There’s also a whole new segment of shareholders who care nothing for dividends, raging risk, or the company’s years of ruinous struggle. O.K. Yet, the question now is, do you believe in “Zero to Eighty% in Six Months. Ford.”(Cover photo. 2020 Ford Shelby GT-500)

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Dominion Zags Down 10% & Green. Play the Bounce?

JULY 6, 2020. When
the stock price of leading performers declines, they actually become cheaper.  Nice.  Dominion did that today, by more than 10%.  When the share price of bad companies drop it’s called a value trap.  Today, Monday, Dominion launched two press releases.  They changed things.  What did we learn when “Dominion Zags  Down 10% & Green”

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Zooming Now. Nothing Stands in the Way.

JUNE 25, 2020. When
charts look like flagpoles there’s trouble in the wind.  Zoom’s doesn’t.  When share prices nearly triple in six months, that’s trouble. Right?  ZM’s has.  Healthy sustainable growth takes a breath once in a while, rhythmically really.  Zoom’s doing that, consistently.  Healthy growth resembles a staircase; rise and rest.  Again, San Jose-based Zoom’s got that too.  So what’s the danger, if there is one? So what’s an investor to do when ZM’s shares are “Zooming Now.  Nothing Standing in the Way.”

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Our Portfolio. Really.

JUNE 16, 2020 Our recovery from the COVID drop has been spectacular, quick, complex, and shifting. The market’s broadening, now, including the financials, and cyclicals. And what’s that about? Speculation, not economic expansion.
But it’s also reflects investors repositioning at smart prices for more recovery.
Opportunity knocks daily now. It’s a mix of the too expensive and the about to be repeatedly beaten.
Think the air and cruise lines. The easy money’s already been made. It’s all battle field roulette for them going forward. Look for the massive cracks and gaping holes in those businesses.
Trading is new to us and \we traded furiously for three weeks. Then we put our hands in our pockets and simply hawked over the action for the past two. Below is what’s left. We made money and mistakes. We lost no money. Why? In part because we didn’t sell what sunk below the waves. Credibility flows from clarity. See that now in “Our Portfolio. Really.”

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