FUNDAMENTALS – Page 2

EDITORIAL, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, STOCKS, THINKING NOW

Apple TV. 4Ked.

NOVEMBER 3, 2019. Mashing your numbers is a terrible and embarrassing thing. We did that yesterday and we’re mopping up now. Apple is truly wonderful and amazing. Apple TV launched last week and already an analyst has suggested the service is a reason to buy the stock. That’s sweet.
Opinion is fine but accuracy shines brighter, like superior programing. Apple might be offering some of that, but not much. When Tim Cook announced Apple’s quad package of services last summer everyone heard that Apple TV had 24 shows lined up. Apple TV+ has precisely 9 shows now. Nine.
Last week HBO launched HBO Max., and NBC slipped-in the notion of offering their ad-supported “Peacock” streaming service for “free,” if you can stand the ads. Peacock is “on-demand,” but with those goddamn ads. Let’s just say the arena Apple’s entered with TV+ is exceedingly crowded, add they’re very late to the battle. Here’s our hi-def on-demand “Apple TV. 4Ked.”

EDITORIAL, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, STOCKS

Appl TV. Big Show?

NOVEMBER 2, 2019. Apple TV finally launched on Friday. How many years have they been working on that? It’s funny really. When a company does something awe-inspiring and spectacular, many simply stop questioning them when the company rolls out what’s next.
We know. You’re thinking “Apple’s wonderful.” Well, yes, of course. Just look at your phone. They do make the most amazing devices, ones that don’t catch fire while you’re flying home for the holidays. Apple’s indeed the biggest and the best. Yet keep looking. How many Apple Music subscribers are there? Do you know? Ever heard of the Apple Newton, or the Apple Pippin? The tiny core of “Apple TV. Big Show?”

FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS

Ford Fugly. Can You?

Halloween, 2019. “A horror story” you say? Kevin Burns, Juul CEO, comment reported by whistle-blower lawsuit citing “contaminated nicotine pods:” Burns; “Half our customers are drunk and vaping like mo-fos, Who the fuck’s going to notice the quality of our pods?” It’s a horror show when your company’s CEO attempts to make up for lost fruit-flavored revenues by purportedly shipping contaminated product. And referring to customers as addictive drunks? It’s all good bro.
O.K., so does Ford’s trunk load of troubles still seem so horrific? Let’s see. The share price hasn’t ceased dropping since the 31% EPS beat reported last Wednesday. Sedan sales dropped 29% in Q3. Don’t forget looming talks with the UAW. And then there’s this comment. “Moderate, strong, and stable.” Hum. That’s what Powell said yesterday as he cut rates for the third time.
“Moderate growth, a strong employment market, and stable inflation.” Hold-up. What’s the chatter about the holidays and retail sales and the health of the last leg standing–the U.S. consumer? “Stronger than last year.” And Q3’s GDP? 1.9%. Taken together, that’s not all bad, and neither is Ford. Let’s look at “Ford.Fugly. Can You?”

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4 Bullets To Savvy Dividends

OCTOBER 26, 2019. Dividends don’t flutter from fall skies like seasonal leaves. Dividends are paid out of cash flows, if there’s enough. Who has enough? It isn’t always those promising. No problem. Checking’s a piece of cake. We’ve got cake.
But paying isn’t the only issue. Dividends are paid by companies doing real business, in a rapidly changing environment. No one gets a free pass through macro chaos or the battle for market share. The fight for cash flow goes on everyday and everywhere. That includes “dividend aristocrats” like JNJ, with it’s’ 57 year history of consecutive dividend raises. How about an affordable, recession-proof, price-performing example, paying 4%? We’ve got that too.
Hoping to be paid regularly for the market risks you take isn’t rocket science. But it isn’t simply aristocratic standing either. Smart people get this one wrong, routinely. We’ve got the right, in “4 Bullets to Savvy Dividends.” Make sure you’ll be paid, top and bottom–and enjoy.

EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, STOCKS

Leaving, When You’ve Lingered Too Long. Salvaging a Smoking Stock Position.

OCTOBER 23, 2019. The question’s always the same; “Should I stay or should I go?” No humiliation applies in any failure there. Stocks are not a love affair, exactly. Everyone takes their turn in the spank line, in stocks and love. Enjoy it, especially when it’s someone else’s turn. We do.
Being paid is why we all do it. The risks we take are why we’re paid, and others are not. We work our asses off, yet stared like some goofy stuffed animal as macro concerns drove cash out of high-multiple growth stocks. The move punched a fat drain hole in three of our positions. We’ve ridden Alteryx, ETSY and New Age Beverages down like ticking time bombs. All have gone off ugly-time. Now what?
Unwinding ugly is typically painful, but much less so then conducting no salvage at all. Our first move is getting positive about it all, and examining each position closely. Now we’re sharing some takeaway with you. Enjoy. STOCKjAW addresses the problem…”Leaving, When You’ve Lingered Too Long.
Salvaging a Smoking Stock Position.”

FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, STOCKS, TECHNICALS, THINKING NOW

Walking Away From JNJ

OCTOBER 20, 2019. Looking for trouble is unneeded. Plenty exists.
We’ve warned against one since August 29th. It’s glowed right before us, everyday. JNJ, and it proved that trouble, clinically. On October 11, Bernstein analyst Lee Hambright charmed JNJ with an upgrade to “Outperform,” and a price target of $155. Seven days later shares dropped -6.22% on greater than triple volume. Why? FDA testing revealed asbestos contamination in its” baby powder. That came right on the heels of the massive judgment against the company for it’s antipsychotic Risperdal, creating a new nightmarish third legal front. That judgment was for $8 billion, for one individual.
Meanwhile, the company suggested it was “open” to a collective settlement of thousands of looming lawsuits relating to its’ part in the opioids plague. And in the foreground Purdue Pharma is being eviscerated on the very same charges. This month comes the start in Ohio of the first federal-level opioids case.
New Brunswick-based Johnson & Johnson has for decades been viewed as a cozy haven of stability and payouts to investors in all markets. Besides the Bernstein upgrade, eight days ago Barron’s named it as one of its’ five best dividend plays. For now JNJ will be more known as a defendant, on multiple fronts. Their payouts in the future will look very different. “Walking Away From JNJ.”

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Dividend Joy. How Now.

OCTOBER 15, 2019. Standing butt-naked on the beach–is that a dividend? Maybe that’s the joy. Either way, there you are. Why? You found your dividend, and they pay, everyday. What would you do to get there? We learned what to look for and we’re sharing. We also came to terms with a criminal bank. Wouldn’t you? Wells is different now. “Really?” you question. Naw, not really–maybe. Corporate culture is as difficult to change as a raging surf. Besides, crime pays well, for a while. Wells knows.
Once and for years Wells was run like some rum-poisoned pirate ship. Former CEO John Stumpf’s gone, replaced by a tenured insider present for all the criminality. Absolutely nothing else has changed, except for the firing of thousands who were only following heavy-handed dictates of senior management bent on committing sprawling fraud. He’s gone too. Now there’s a new guy coming. He’s the FNG. So, let’s say Wells is in progress.
Meanwhile, Morningstar pins a $58.00 price target on the stock. That suggests a 16% up move from here. That’s without the 4.15% dividend. Is it worth it? What makes any dividend stock worth owning? We use wells and a new Barron’s article as examples and lessons.
We pose all the proper dividend questions. STOCKjAW talks “Dividend Joy. How Now.”