EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY

The Hunker

MARCH 18, 2020. Centennial storms happen more frequently now. Thus the “once in 100 years” line is wholly meaningless. Canned goods are still good, and still canned. Katrina was tragic and also an apt analogy to our market, and now our economy.
The Ka Ka’s sharply hit the props when TV waves bow beneath the weight of canned policy verbiage from Capitol Hill and your closed library. That’s why Reed Hastings built Netflix.
Meanwhile, financial facilitation and relief thinking is said to be coursing on Capitol Hill. We’ll see. Much of what the Fed actually does exists below the media line. Only financial professionals even understand the repo market and Fed actions that maintain liquidity.
The fed’s doing those things. Yet banks and REITs are disastrous.
The Fed’s for real, but not alone. Being informed is essential, but bathing in “we’re making sure” isn’t. We’re watching closely yet shuffling in a dose of “the Hunker.”

Read more
EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

F BOMB

MARCH 11, 2020. Back in 1957 Toyota landed at a derelict Rambler dealership deep in Hollywood. Nobody noticed. “Made in Japan” meant junk. Detroit owned American driving, and had since the beginning. During the mid-80’s the Japanese auto invasion reached critical mass. Buyers had noticed the quality difference. Detroit was caught lame, dopey, and bloated. The junk rolling off their production lines looked good, to them. Buyer felt otherwise.
Meanwhile, Japan’s spiritual egalitarian management style was producing a lean and reliable product line. Fuel economy mattered as well, and those quality-packed offerings carved up the U.S. auto market like a Samurai sword.
And it was business as usual for Detroit. Ford and Gm have habitually leaned backward rather than toward a transformative future. During the Yom Kippur War in 1973 OPEC hit an oil addicted west with an oil embargo. Gas lines wrapped around the block as motorists physically pushed eight cylinder boats toward busy pumps.
Oil trouble sent Detroit halfheartedly toward EV thinking. The obstacles were huge. Did they keep thinking long-term? No. The second oil again flowed they jettisoned the entire EV concept and packed their shaky prototypes into the crusher. They didn’t even leave an EV pilot light sparking. Now Tesla’s all over their backs.
The marvels of Detroit are many, including their repeated myopic refusal to tool for any future beyond next year. Detroit is a come from behind operator. That’s why Ford’s now an “F BOMB.”

Read more
FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MEDIA, STOCKS, THINKING NOW

Windows Down. Tesla.

MARCH 7, 2020. Visions are power. Back in 1969 the Saturn 5 boosted the Apollo Program into our collective imagination. That summer cars were personal and SRBs tumbled in silent grace back to Earth. The vision above bloomed for all to see on the bright side of the moon. Vision turned reality.
Space X lands solid rocket boosters upright on the launch pad. That’s different. The sea doesn’t need them. That’s the power of vision. Elon has an EV vision. Musk is a legitimate visionary, and a charismatic lightening rod. Tesla, his EV car company is on the lie detector presently, seeking a true valuation. None exists–not really. The market simply spins one up by the day. Think spinning Twister dial.
Investors believe in Elon’s visions, and Tesla’s future. They cling to Musk’s future with their dollars. That’s nice, and tradeable. Now Tesla is a legitimate phenomenon, busy making a believer of the wider market. It’s not luck when you only build 365 thousand cars annually, yet sport a market cap larger than Ford and GM combined. Riding the wild vision, “Windows Down. Tesla.”

Read more
EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

The Good Refuse to Go. Kirkland Lake and Alteryx Prove Golden.

FEBRUARY 22, 2020.  The market never was a love song.  Often it’s a popping lotto box of bone break.  Doing the work don’t mean you’re gonna be loved.  Do something people don’t immediately understand and you may be treated like a weekend Elvis.
Kirkland Lake Gold gets it.  KL just bought a brighter future and beat the numbers like a gong.  Elvis.  They just reported again and now may be your moment.  When you grow EPS by 104%, and revenue by 51%, over the entire year, you may just be a pulsar.
We’ve also been strapped-up with Alteryx, keepin’ the faith and being paid.  We did just talk “Alteryx Again & Again.  The Pattern You Can Play.”  Now we’re back to report the results–theirs and ours.  Did Alteryx remain true to it’s ways?  Nonetheless, “The Good Refuse to Go.  Kirkland Lake and Alteryx Prove Golden.”

Read more
FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

Alteryx Again and Again. The Pattern You Can Play.

FEBRUARY 12, 2020. Patterns matter, like habits. Grasping their way matters more. On the Super Highway of Now data’s king and those without only pick around the edges. “Data” you patter? Think sports stats, or Invine-based Alteryx. Yup. AYX reports on Thursday, and there’s a pattern. That’s why we’re writing you now. We think this pattern is actionable.
Actionable insight is what Alteryx is also all about–using data analysis to drive productivity, direction, and focus. For our purpose the pattern’s in their chart. We’ve got those too. Each time AYX reports investors behave much the same way. We know that because we looked, and now’s the time to know.
When economies slow cyclicals slip to your portfolio’s back side. That’s a pattern also, that’s industrials, materials, staples, energy, real estate. What’s left? IT, secular growth, and that’s “Alteryx Again and Again. The Pattern You Can Play.”

Read more
CULTURE, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

Jonesing For Tiny Devices. AMD. Lift Your Love Lamp.

FEBRUARY 8, 2020. Santa Clara California’s a semiconductor cage match and AMD’s there. AMD is also a bullet-train of growth. Out of 17 stocks we track in the space, AMD’s at the top in returns over six months, and 2nd YTD. And if you need a lift buy their stock, because they won’t be slowing to pluck you off the street.
“Street” you repeat? Well, you know Wall Street’s awesome. Think AMD. Where does the street send you when you beat? Lower. And whadda you get when you dominate? A grubby paper bag clinging to a sweaty 40oz. What did you expect?
Respect? Whadda you get for retina-detaching 300% y/y EPS acceleration? You get a 6% kick low in the gearbox.
Exactly why is Wall Street awesome again? Because they don’t take checks. You gotta pay in blood, even If you are the 500’s top performer 2019. But that’s O.K., because everybody’s still “Jonesing’ for Tiny Devices. AMD. Lift Your Love Lamp.”

Read more
EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS, THINKING NOW

REIT Down the Street. 10% They Pay. MFA.

JANUARY 28, 2020. We’re inhabiting what’s known as an “expensive market.” The flight to safety, and quality, has seemingly left little to choose from if you like income. Well, perhaps not.
AT&T has for years been viewed as income and even safety. But that was before shares ran from the low $30s to $39. The dividend’s nice, but let’s face it. The company’s at best a barely-manageable mess.
We admit it. We used it for the dividend, until we found something we like better. Are there alternatives to the AT&T show? We take readers on a zip tour of the “REIT Down the Street. 10% They Pay. MFA.”

Read more
EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

Kicked On. Kirkland Lake Gold.

JANUARY 23, 2020. A million miners grind ore for gold. It’s a tough business and the metal’s more difficult to find by the minute. The planet’s not making any more. Mining’s a “capital intensive” endeavor, and like oil, replacing reserves to ensure future production is critical. Kirkland just moved decisively on that, and is doing the rest of this business better than anyone else. The $11 billion dollar Toronto-based enterprise has an eye on it’s future, while also growing current production at 35% year-over-year. Anything else?
KL outperformed Microsoft over the past year, and savagely over three, and it’s half the price. It’s also trading here for a 13% discount to it’s near-term high. The company’s fundamentals shine like the sun, it’s balance sheet is bullet-proof., and it’s gobbled back 1.127 million of its’ own shares, while more then doubling its’ cash position. Impressed?
How ’bout this? If you’d have owned KL over this past year you’d be up 65%. Over the past three you’d be up 565%. What did CEO Tony Makach just say about KL’s performance? “We just had our best year ever.” And he’s got the metrics to prove it, as do we. “Kicked On.
Kirkland Lake Gold. “(Cover photo: Night mining.)

Read more
FUNDAMENTALS, GREEDY CREEP, INVESTING, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

Show Time. Wells Fargo & Boeing. You Get Paid For This?

JANUARY 12, 2020. Business is sober serious stuff, real business anyway. Ninety-one Fortune 500 companies, doing sober business, paid no federal taxes at all last year. That’s sobering, and serious if the country’s going to pay its’ bills. Strippers pay bills and may be sober, and serious to anyone watching, or paying.
What about Silicon Valley startup Turvo software, “Collaborative Logistics.” Back in May Turvo sobered, and then got serious about firing their CEO Eric Gilmore for expensing $76,120.00 over three years for business. Stripper business. Stripping comes straight off the top of any sober tax bill. Is that how we explain the ninety-one?
Wells did do a lot of serious business and stripping, after they were caught, fabricating, defrauding, and stealing. Wells stripped it’s mortgage wing bare of all the innocent employees they flogged into it’s last big crime spree. Then they wanted more. But that’s not all they’re doing. And Boeing? The curtain’s been stripped back on company emails. Should you want any of either? “Show Time. Wells Fargo & Boeing. You Get Paid For This?”

Read more