Facts Are Stub-Crazy Things. NFLX. Disney.

JULY 19, 2020. After close last Thursday Netflix put their Q2 facts on the table. Oops, it was really their suspicions that enraged.  Shares were indeed priced for perfection. They promptly plunged roller-coaster style 11% in after-hours.  But the fall actually began on Monday and didn’t abate until the close on Friday.
What’d the Los Gotos-based SVOD superstar say that enraged?
Simply the expectation of “2.5 million net new adds” for next quarter–Q3.  They also said the COVID crush of new subs is “tapering off.”  That did it.
O.K. Well, John Quincy Adams said “Facts are stubborn things.” And NFLX isn’t the only name in SVOD town.  Like Tom Cruse said in The Color of Money, “Everybody’s doin’ it.”  Disney’s doin’ it–since last November.  So’s Hulu, AT&T with HBO MAX.  Prime too.  But what about the enduring pundit love for Disney?  So Netflix v Disney, when “Facts Are Stub-Crazy Things.  NFLX.  Disney.”  Continue reading Facts Are Stub-Crazy Things. NFLX. Disney.

POWER PLAY. Utilities. Protection?

JULY 3, 2020.  Some may call you mean.  Some may call you rude.  Some will stop calling you at all.  Yet, the truth matters and a fall from a tall building doesn’t create more.  You paid for more, not less.  Consider it.
Power companies expect to be paid every month.  Promises won’t do.  But when you’ve paid to participate in the business, the results are all on you.  Utils are said to be “defensive.”  But from what?  Market crashes?  Capital loss?  Earnings reversals?  “No–it’s income” you say?  Nice.  Is it really income when your utility’s share price folds by double-digits?  How about if their EPS is in reverse?
Since our market was shoved off a cliff and unemployment bounced into the stratosphere, precisely what have the utilities done for you?  Have they kept the “defensive” promise?  Were you “protected?”  Or did you simply pay into a “POWER PLAY.  Utilities.  Protection?” Continue reading POWER PLAY. Utilities. Protection?

Zooming Now. Nothing Stands in the Way.

JUNE 25, 2020. When
charts look like flagpoles there’s trouble in the wind.  Zoom’s doesn’t.  When share prices nearly triple in six months, that’s trouble. Right?  ZM’s has.  Healthy sustainable growth takes a breath once in a while, rhythmically really.  Zoom’s doing that, consistently.  Healthy growth resembles a staircase; rise and rest.  Again, San Jose-based Zoom’s got that too.  So what’s the danger, if there is one? So what’s an investor to do when ZM’s shares are “Zooming Now.  Nothing Standing in the Way.” Continue reading Zooming Now. Nothing Stands in the Way.

Our Portfolio. Really.

JUNE 16, 2020 Our recovery from the COVID drop has been spectacular, quick, complex, and shifting. The market’s broadening, now, including the financials, and cyclicals. And what’s that about? Speculation, not economic expansion.
But it’s also reflects investors repositioning at smart prices for more recovery.
Opportunity knocks daily now. It’s a mix of the too expensive and the about to be repeatedly beaten.
Think the air and cruise lines. The easy money’s already been made. It’s all battle field roulette for them going forward. Look for the massive cracks and gaping holes in those businesses.
Trading is new to us and \we traded furiously for three weeks. Then we put our hands in our pockets and simply hawked over the action for the past two. Below is what’s left. We made money and mistakes. We lost no money. Why? In part because we didn’t sell what sunk below the waves. Credibility flows from clarity. See that now in “Our Portfolio. Really.” Continue reading Our Portfolio. Really.

ROCKET STARS. PYPL, ZM, DOCU.

JUNE 2, 2020. It’s all good now–who worries about encryption? Not shareholders of Zoom. Zoombombing’s over now–right? Bombers made indelibly clear that ZM’s claims concerning “end-to-end encryption” were flag-waving nonsense. The flurry of F-bombs, insults, and conference hijackings, hardly dented ZM’s share price. Up over 24% yesterday alone. Rocket Star.
Paperwork rules the economy–“Sign here.” Right. DocuSign’s digitizing yet another bothersome, cripplingly-slow process. Just sign on yo phone and the loan-or deed or whatever’s–all set. How much would you pay for that service? Rocket Star.
Streamlining, digitizing, call it what you will, Paypal’s been doing all that for years. They were there when eBay was born. They have the customer base to prove it. Now they’re peeer-t0-peer and more. Moving and managing money are in part cultural, thus demographic. They’ve got that too. Millennials think Venmo and SoFi not Wells. Since it’s COVID low on March 20th, PYPl’s risen 78.2% into yesterday’s close. Consider PYPL, another “Rocket Star. PYPL, ZM, DOCU.” Continue reading ROCKET STARS. PYPL, ZM, DOCU.

“Day Trade Crazy?”

MAY 25, 2020. Taking your money on a pandemic stroll is stone crazy. Cash is nice. But doing nothing’s smart for only so long. Statues can afford it. We’re not made of stone, nor is our market. In fact, the market’s the very definition of dynamic change. And now?
Our market’s a train track. It’s tech and healthcare. That’s it. Nine of eleven sectors are in reverse YTD. Fixed income’s a sick joke. So what’s an investor to do? Patiently look to slowly reposition part of your portfolio for a wider recovery. Think about trading what’s been working. Is that “Day Trade Crazy?” Continue reading “Day Trade Crazy?”

Bonds Don’t Suck.

MAY 2, 2020. Bonds are Fa King awesome. Like losing money? Then don’t worry about bonds. Most enjoy protecting theirs.
Yet no one ever launches the real bond punchline. All we ever hear is “yields dropping” or “prices rising.” Only after losing money does one truly learn to value protection, and bonds. Thus the phrase “your first loss is your best loss.” Bonds are brilliant yet treated like some OTC digestive. Not here.
No savvy equity investor should ever rebalance or tie their shoes without the butt-simple bond truth.
Learn it once and own it forever. Bonds are not lame and safety and yield are only a slice. It’s only the safety story that’s lame. Why “Bonds Don’t Suck.”(Photo; Ryan McGuire) Continue reading Bonds Don’t Suck.

You Call That Investing? AT&T. Alphabet. JNJ. Amazon.

APRIL 24, 2020. If you’re looking to phone up some profit now you may need to Google it first and maybe medicate for a long river run past toe-tagging underbrush. Or you could simply sum these four plays up here and how. No sweat or blood. Breezing through the buys or whys. “You Call That Investing? AT&T. Alphabet. JNJ. Amazon.” Continue reading You Call That Investing? AT&T. Alphabet. JNJ. Amazon.

DIM BULB or NIGHT LIGHT? American Electric Power.

APRIL, 17, 2020. Major utilities are running negatively both YTD and over the past six fugly months. We track nine. Is that still investing? Is it even “capital preservation,” when your stock’s going down? Markets go up and also come down, like boulders tumbling.
Somebody somewhere claimed that the vast majority of any stock’s annual move occurs in only 14 days. People say a lot of things, but this one is true. Utilities can mean having something sturdy that pays, regardless. Here’s another. Utils are not created equal.
Jim Cramer routinely provides more investable insight than anyone out there. Cramer likes AEP, and Con ED. They were the only two up for the week, 0.04% and 1.8% respectively. We’ve learned more from Jim than anyone else, yet things change and perspectives vary. How’s AEP now? We took a look into AEP to see if we were dealing with a “DIM BULB or NIGHT LIGHT? American Electric Power.” (Cover image, ColiNOOB) Continue reading DIM BULB or NIGHT LIGHT? American Electric Power.