FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

Should You? Wal-Mart?

NOVEMBER 16, 2019. You need socks and stocks. You don’t wanna pay. Is Wal-Mart your way? Yes socks and maybe stocks. Back in the day there was Y2K. While others worried over the end of the world Wal-Mart was thinking groceries, and an even bigger future. Netflix was new and busy over a predictive algorithm. VHS yet clattered on and trash-strewn cable snorted and roared and robbed everybody every night.
Meanwhile Wal-Mart thought about–right again, groceries, and a blue heaven of fabulous sprawling one-stop shopping, the way mother never did it.
Simultaneously Thomas Jefferson–oops, Jeff Bezos, was laboring like some mad troll out in the mists of Seattle. Jeff was re-envisioning America. Let’s face it. Americans are professionals, at shopping, and doing so from home has always been the inevitable American Dream.
Straight out of Jeff’s bubbling cooker popped Marc Lore, freshly resentful and bent with intent. Burning hot in Hoboken Marc sharpened a savage scheme to gut-punch Bezos. Lore promptly began Jet.com behind the clever refinement of even lower online prices, driven by efficiency and extreme cost cutting, mostly on a new shipping configuration. Customers could save if willing to wait, bundle purchases, and select vendors within the same region. Big surprise. Wal-Mart noticed and popped out their Wal-let.
Jet.com’s now part of Wal-Mart’s fast growing e-commerce push, and again–Fa King groceries, are the center of all that. And after we remind you that Sam Walton’s Wal-Mart was begun in ’62 in the harboring Ozarks, Rogers Arkansas, not Bentonville, you’ll have heard the roots of modern American Retail. “Should You? Wal-Mart?”

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EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS

In the EYE of the Storm.

NOVEMBER 9, 2019. Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones are all tropical storms. Mostly they differ only in hemispheric location. Does it matter what we call them? All create chaos and loss, with a halftime pause. This year’s hurricane season ends on Saturday, November 30th.
Wall Street and those who comment on said have no season. They create chaos and toss shit around all year long. We saw that this week. Xerox? You Fa King kidding? 92%YTD. Oops. The Real Real”s apparently not all real, and neither is most of the coffin nail-pounding hog shit spun by the street. Spin’s just business, like loose electricity, regardless of the precise nonsense it’s comprised of.
We do our own homework, like a mad typhoon. Why? It’s nobody’s money but ours, and trust is no substitute for knowing. Even really smart, savvy, and honest people disagree, and blunder sideways to the tune of billions. On Wall Street you often can’t even tell you’re in a blow, until you’re already spinning. Besides, you don’t really want to repeat goofy moves made by others while crouched in “The Eye of the Storm.”

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FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS

Ford Fugly. Can You?

Halloween, 2019. “A horror story” you say? Kevin Burns, Juul CEO, comment reported by whistle-blower lawsuit citing “contaminated nicotine pods:” Burns; “Half our customers are drunk and vaping like mo-fos, Who the fuck’s going to notice the quality of our pods?” It’s a horror show when your company’s CEO attempts to make up for lost fruit-flavored revenues by purportedly shipping contaminated product. And referring to customers as addictive drunks? It’s all good bro.
O.K., so does Ford’s trunk load of troubles still seem so horrific? Let’s see. The share price hasn’t ceased dropping since the 31% EPS beat reported last Wednesday. Sedan sales dropped 29% in Q3. Don’t forget looming talks with the UAW. And then there’s this comment. “Moderate, strong, and stable.” Hum. That’s what Powell said yesterday as he cut rates for the third time.
“Moderate growth, a strong employment market, and stable inflation.” Hold-up. What’s the chatter about the holidays and retail sales and the health of the last leg standing–the U.S. consumer? “Stronger than last year.” And Q3’s GDP? 1.9%. Taken together, that’s not all bad, and neither is Ford. Let’s look at “Ford.Fugly. Can You?”

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CULTURE, Editor's Choice, FUNDAMENTALS, GREEDY CREEP, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, THINKING NOW

Dividend Joy. How Now.

OCTOBER 15, 2019. Standing butt-naked on the beach–is that a dividend? Maybe that’s the joy. Either way, there you are. Why? You found your dividend, and they pay, everyday. What would you do to get there? We learned what to look for and we’re sharing. We also came to terms with a criminal bank. Wouldn’t you? Wells is different now. “Really?” you question. Naw, not really–maybe. Corporate culture is as difficult to change as a raging surf. Besides, crime pays well, for a while. Wells knows.
Once and for years Wells was run like some rum-poisoned pirate ship. Former CEO John Stumpf’s gone, replaced by a tenured insider present for all the criminality. Absolutely nothing else has changed, except for the firing of thousands who were only following heavy-handed dictates of senior management bent on committing sprawling fraud. He’s gone too. Now there’s a new guy coming. He’s the FNG. So, let’s say Wells is in progress.
Meanwhile, Morningstar pins a $58.00 price target on the stock. That suggests a 16% up move from here. That’s without the 4.15% dividend. Is it worth it? What makes any dividend stock worth owning? We use wells and a new Barron’s article as examples and lessons.
We pose all the proper dividend questions. STOCKjAW talks “Dividend Joy. How Now.”

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EDITOR'S DESK, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

Portfolio Strength. Four Moves Toward More.

OCTOBER 12, 2019. Trade “agreements” are never final and “deals” are firstly talk. Meanwhile your portfolio turns in the wind created by all that gas. Individual investors can’t stop such. We can however reposition. Trade’s a drag, but not the only macro funk we face. Additionally there’s that pesky “economic slowing” thing. O.K.
Many people talk and some actually make sense. Here’s some. Opportunities only truly end when we stop looking, or thinking. Here’s more. Everything good’s now too expensive. Hog shit. The door toward greater safety or growth’s now closed. Pish-posh. Sometimes the good stuff stares you in the face to the point you don’t even notice anymore. Or maybe that stuff simply looks very different in this macro light. We have one, or two, and they’re not secrets. Both are in fact perfect examples of five characteristics that work brilliantly now. Buy either, or use them as ideas to narrow your process. Your portfolio will love you back for that. The future’s yet coming. Now is always when we’re preparing, Sumo-style. “Portfolio Strength. Four Moves Toward More.”

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CULTURE, FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS, THINKING NOW

A Nine Worm Apple? Tell Me No.

SEPTEMBER 24, 2019. Apple isn’t Amazon. It’s China locked–big time. Nor is it exactly cheap. Some can’t decide.  It’s either 18 trailing and 19 forward, or the other way round.  Anyone worried about that shouldn’t buy Apple.  Owning shares of Apple is like owning a slice of a country. AAPL doesn’t have revenue.  It has GDP.  Thousands of companies collaborate to create those ultra-sleek marvels. Does that matter?
GDP drops during any recession.  Being big doesn’t stop that.  Last night Jim Cramer stared into the camera and said “It’s not trading on fundamentals.”  But he was talking about JNJ.  “It’s mammoth” he said, and “JNJ’s trading on opioid headlines.” We said that in our piece “Off Label” back in August.
So what’s JNJ have to do with Apple now?  Both are involved in complications that can’t be measured.  For JNJ it’s a blizzard of full-ugly lawsuits, and Apple’s global fishing net of component supplies, most in oppositional China.  Anybody know what they’re gonna do?
Apple has more money than Italy.  That’s good because it will take money to thrive if economies dive.  What else does Apple have?  “A Nine Worms Apple?  Tell Me No.”  STOCKjAW takes a bite(Cover photo; Apple Store, Union Square, San Francisco.)

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FUNDAMENTALS, GREEDY CREEP, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS

Off Label. JNJ. Just Say No.

AUGUST 29, 2019. Savvy investing’s bone-simple at its’ core. Buy lower and sell higher. The problem is what lies in-between. What lies in-between is known as risk. Risk comes in two forms. You don’t want any of either.
“Market risk” can only be avoided by not buying. “Individual issue risk” can be selected and “managed” by knowing what and when you’re buying. And Johnson & Johnson?
Opioids have proved a problem whether prescribed, taken, or neither. No? Then why are forty of fifty states already on-board and suing? Who wants trouble? Is buying JNJ’s trouble really “defensive?” Not everyone’s scheduled for court, tens of thousands of times. “Off Label. JNJ. Do Not Drive, Operate Heavy Machinery, or Invest…”

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