MARKETS/ECONOMY – Page 2

FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

F. All Trucked UP?

DECEMBER 31, 2019. Find them anywhere from Key Largo to Shenzhen. Ford’s vehicles roam the planet. Their problems are planet-scale as well. Planets are moving targets, and so is business. How many people even want to own cars anymore?
Ford’s moving as well, away from sedans and directly to electric drive. Their playbook calls for a stable of 40 EVs within the next twelve months. Many exist now. Think the sparkling new Mustang Mach E. Can investors take an electrifying ride along with a company amid wholesale transformation? We take a quick look to see if you can. “F. All Trucked UP?”(Cover photo; the 2020 Ford commercial Transit. It and the Transit Connect own Europe.)

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Dare it is. CapitalOne

DECEMBER 21, 2019. Dumpster diving defensive plays for bargains now is a fruitless folly. But we want a bargain. “You know what a bargain is? Buying nothing” David Faber. Well, that’s actually called saving. Is it time to save?
Always, and it’s also time for value. Can you smell the building rotation? It’s back to growth yo, soon. Think 266,000 November jobs and repeat all-time highs for all three indexes. Smell it now? The savvy never argue with jobs, rotations, or real bargains. Know any? Capital One?
Over three months we’ve witnessed the financials transform from a gaggle of dopey nappers into shimmering stars. Yup. Bam. Institutional money squirts like that. Witness the big banks. Jamie’s JPM used to sell for 1.6x book–buying with both hands yo. Now it cool-glides somewhere above the clouds in a hushed grace, all a fatter 1.84x book. Up 16%–three quick months.
And others? Skank of America? Better back up. BAC; up 17.7%, three rolled months. Only the hooks of a claw hammer rakes our wallet out for BAC’s price now. Even the still grab-asstic criminal stage coach known as Wells Fargo has creaked forward 9.8%. Wells is now more expensive than enticing. We know. We’re still attempting to hatch a pile.
Once bargains roar they’re no longer bargains. A few become parables, while the rest simply become pricey. Any rotation-driven move up creates a bit of multiple expansion. That’s unless company fundamentals also improve. Most don’t. All up moves have only so much gas. All that’s where we’re at with Capital One. COF is now one of the top 10 largest lenders in the U.S., and has more than 520 bank branches, mainly in the east. Bank deposits mean better funding, and more security. It’s not just a card dealer. It’s up. It’s value, and it pays. Is that enough? STOCKjAW looks deep to see…”Dare it is. Capital One.”

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Soaring With Vultures. The Criminal Twins.

NOVEMBER 24, 2019. Are shock and back-turning outrage merely quint now? Does a history of criminal antics put you off? Haven’t we seen it all, including fraud so vastly sweeping it’s visible from space? But then, think about it. America sports a spectacular spider’s web of laws so dense that even a Popsicle stand would violate something. Right?
All of the above being true, no excuse exists for the Criminal Twins. The Twins are the recidivists we’ve chosen to embrace, in these uncertain times. Why? For one, they pay. They’re not perfect, yet finding something that works in this market is good, regardless of their rap sheets. And as we said–they pay. Are these corporate repeat offenders still a buy here?
Enjoy. “Soaring With Vultures. The Criminal Twins.”

FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS, TECHNICALS

Should You? Wal-Mart?

NOVEMBER 16, 2019. You need socks and stocks. You don’t wanna pay. Is Wal-Mart your way? Yes socks and maybe stocks. Back in the day there was Y2K. While others worried over the end of the world Wal-Mart was thinking groceries, and an even bigger future. Netflix was new and busy over a predictive algorithm. VHS yet clattered on and trash-strewn cable snorted and roared and robbed everybody every night.
Meanwhile Wal-Mart thought about–right again, groceries, and a blue heaven of fabulous sprawling one-stop shopping, the way mother never did it.
Simultaneously Thomas Jefferson–oops, Jeff Bezos, was laboring like some mad troll out in the mists of Seattle. Jeff was re-envisioning America. Let’s face it. Americans are professionals, at shopping, and doing so from home has always been the inevitable American Dream.
Straight out of Jeff’s bubbling cooker popped Marc Lore, freshly resentful and bent with intent. Burning hot in Hoboken Marc sharpened a savage scheme to gut-punch Bezos. Lore promptly began Jet.com behind the clever refinement of even lower online prices, driven by efficiency and extreme cost cutting, mostly on a new shipping configuration. Customers could save if willing to wait, bundle purchases, and select vendors within the same region. Big surprise. Wal-Mart noticed and popped out their Wal-let.
Jet.com’s now part of Wal-Mart’s fast growing e-commerce push, and again–Fa King groceries, are the center of all that. And after we remind you that Sam Walton’s Wal-Mart was begun in ’62 in the harboring Ozarks, Rogers Arkansas, not Bentonville, you’ll have heard the roots of modern American Retail. “Should You? Wal-Mart?”

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In the EYE of the Storm.

NOVEMBER 9, 2019. Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones are all tropical storms. Mostly they differ only in hemispheric location. Does it matter what we call them? All create chaos and loss, with a halftime pause. This year’s hurricane season ends on Saturday, November 30th.
Wall Street and those who comment on said have no season. They create chaos and toss shit around all year long. We saw that this week. Xerox? You Fa King kidding? 92%YTD. Oops. The Real Real”s apparently not all real, and neither is most of the coffin nail-pounding hog shit spun by the street. Spin’s just business, like loose electricity, regardless of the precise nonsense it’s comprised of.
We do our own homework, like a mad typhoon. Why? It’s nobody’s money but ours, and trust is no substitute for knowing. Even really smart, savvy, and honest people disagree, and blunder sideways to the tune of billions. On Wall Street you often can’t even tell you’re in a blow, until you’re already spinning. Besides, you don’t really want to repeat goofy moves made by others while crouched in “The Eye of the Storm.”

FUNDAMENTALS, INVESTING, MARKETS/ECONOMY, STOCKS

Ford Fugly. Can You?

Halloween, 2019. “A horror story” you say? Kevin Burns, Juul CEO, comment reported by whistle-blower lawsuit citing “contaminated nicotine pods:” Burns; “Half our customers are drunk and vaping like mo-fos, Who the fuck’s going to notice the quality of our pods?” It’s a horror show when your company’s CEO attempts to make up for lost fruit-flavored revenues by purportedly shipping contaminated product. And referring to customers as addictive drunks? It’s all good bro.
O.K., so does Ford’s trunk load of troubles still seem so horrific? Let’s see. The share price hasn’t ceased dropping since the 31% EPS beat reported last Wednesday. Sedan sales dropped 29% in Q3. Don’t forget looming talks with the UAW. And then there’s this comment. “Moderate, strong, and stable.” Hum. That’s what Powell said yesterday as he cut rates for the third time.
“Moderate growth, a strong employment market, and stable inflation.” Hold-up. What’s the chatter about the holidays and retail sales and the health of the last leg standing–the U.S. consumer? “Stronger than last year.” And Q3’s GDP? 1.9%. Taken together, that’s not all bad, and neither is Ford. Let’s look at “Ford.Fugly. Can You?”

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Dividend Joy. How Now.

OCTOBER 15, 2019. Standing butt-naked on the beach–is that a dividend? Maybe that’s the joy. Either way, there you are. Why? You found your dividend, and they pay, everyday. What would you do to get there? We learned what to look for and we’re sharing. We also came to terms with a criminal bank. Wouldn’t you? Wells is different now. “Really?” you question. Naw, not really–maybe. Corporate culture is as difficult to change as a raging surf. Besides, crime pays well, for a while. Wells knows.
Once and for years Wells was run like some rum-poisoned pirate ship. Former CEO John Stumpf’s gone, replaced by a tenured insider present for all the criminality. Absolutely nothing else has changed, except for the firing of thousands who were only following heavy-handed dictates of senior management bent on committing sprawling fraud. He’s gone too. Now there’s a new guy coming. He’s the FNG. So, let’s say Wells is in progress.
Meanwhile, Morningstar pins a $58.00 price target on the stock. That suggests a 16% up move from here. That’s without the 4.15% dividend. Is it worth it? What makes any dividend stock worth owning? We use wells and a new Barron’s article as examples and lessons.
We pose all the proper dividend questions. STOCKjAW talks “Dividend Joy. How Now.”