APRIL 23, 2021. Financial information often has a very short shelf life. Example. Buy and sell opportunities flash and then vanish. Anyone familiar with STOCKjAW knows we prefer comprehensive coverage. Why? Hope is no substitute for knowing. Yet, timely calls matter. Here’s “Micron. Right on Time.”
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MARCH 16, 2021. Imagine if masks were once again called “bikinis.”
What if you could again sway with the crowd? What if real people replaced cardboard cutouts at the game? What crowd? What game?
Are you mad? Right. Well, Pfizer, Moderna, and JNJ are now very busy beating this filthy virus like some sprawling steel drum. Living outdoors and out loud are becoming very real again, even nearly naked. And then?
How about boat Tapas off Spain, goat yoga in Greece, a food tour by bike anywhere?
All that’s coming and Airbnb does all those and much more. After all, they’re “connected.” ABNB creates connections. Airbnb is a non-stop shop for locales, lodging, and curated “Experiences” led by locals. Whadda you get? A place to stay and a place to go.
The lid’s just coming off of this lockdown and people are whacked raving mad to live again, together, outdoors, and out loud. Airbnb is already there, everywhere. A single taste and “You go to my head. Airbnb.”
MARCH 2, 2021. Crowbar in a sand pile. It’s dividend-simple. Dividends are the auto-joy of investing success, a sweet cash kicker, a bankable confetti storm of goodness. Many employ such as a livable income. AT&T lives on such income investors. Own it?
Dividends can be all of that, except when they’re not. We’re not talking about div problems like Ford, or Macy’s, both of whom completely discarded dividend payouts. That’s the obvious hole in the boat. When cash is king and more is better you win. Cash or additional shares, both mean a larger pie right? Market wisdom says that “Forty percent of the S&P500’s return comes from reinvested dividends.” So how can that go wrong? The two stone ways when dividends are not a win. Even the big names fail here. Think “Dividend Destroyer. The Illusion of a Payout.”
FEBRUARY 26, 2021. Soaring growth seems everywhere just now. O.K. well, big growth isn’t created equal. Big growth can blow your socks off in a day, or burn your portfolio to the waterline. Or? You can turn to pure value, and watch it creep cautiously toward cozy single-digit annual returns. Or? You could look at Pinterest. As of pre-market Friday PINS has returned 129% over the past six months. Is that value? Pinterest is not just offering soaring returns. The stunning growth is underpinned by real fundamentals. Think 76% y/y revenue growth. That’s value right? And that’s why we’re talking “PINS. Driving Point.”
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DECEMBER 6, 2020. We’ve been trading our asses off. Jesus Christos. How hard can it be to spot a hold at a price? Harder everyday. Why? Valuations. Repeat “multiple expansion,” atop a troubled economy. And how does that end? Fugly, every fugly time. “Hunt the beaten down cyclicals” you say? “Build a barbell” you say? Well, of course.
That approach says balance lockdown plays with recovery plays. Uh hum. Why do you suppose we’ve just covered Ford and GM?
This story’s simple. Narrow markets, such as we’ve had for months, squeeze money into the few plays that are working. Think the mega-caps, Tesla too. Those monster runs are a bit chasey and slippery anti-trust questions now.
And the already hot cyclicals and remaining lockdown plays? Multiple expansion. And what’s that? Inflated share prices residing on fixed fundamentals. Who pays up, and again, for the exact same earnings? Absolutely everyone. That changes when earnings come in light. Oh boy. And what does that look like? Fugly, sudden, rude.
Did we mention–we’ve been trading our asses off? We’re investors and that means trading too. That’s what we do. And we’re “Being Paid in Waves. Day Trading Alteryx.”
NOVEMBER 19, 2020. Pop the hood on your car and sneak a peek. Right. WTF? The once recognizable is gone. Car guts look very different now, as does the car business. Ford’s looking in too–into it’s own business. What are they seeing? “Trucks and SUVs–all good. Love that. The dumpy sedan’s dead. Broom that.” What else? The Chinese operation’s politicized and chaotic. And then there’s our shareholder base.
Customers love the F-150, and batteries too. F’s blending those next year. The new Mustang Mach E’s flat rubber-burning evil, with no range. The revamped Ford Explorer launch was a monkey rodeo. Jesus. Empty showroom floors never please, or sell. That means you have to “incentivize” customers to buy cars they can’t touch. They did, incentivize. The press and public excitement surrounding the new Bronco is through the roof.
Meanwhile F’s share price has rocked heavenward by 80% in just six months. That’s promising. Or perhaps extended? From its’ Dearborn base just outside of Detroit, Ford’s shooting for the moon with EVs, and running on pure adrenaline. The real threat of extinction will do that to a company. Extinction feels very real when you sport a $4 share price–$3.96 back on March 23rd this year.
Well, again, that puny share price has been seriously juiced since by a crazed confluence of market factors. There’s also a whole new segment of shareholders who care nothing for dividends, raging risk, or the company’s years of ruinous struggle. O.K. Yet, the question now is, do you believe in “Zero to Eighty% in Six Months. Ford.”(Cover photo. 2020 Ford Shelby GT-500)
NOVEMBER 14, 2020. Trendless markets blow with the winds. Pfizer’s vaccine announcement on Monday sent markets soaring. The remainder of the week maundered and jerked sideways. Yet trading can make that work, when you know the tools. Knowing these tools is more than worth it for “12.6% in Eleven Days. Goldman’s Repeating Pattern.”
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Link to the Real. It Pays. The images on the screen haven’t always moved when touched. Poking and swiping at our phones or most everything else is yet another example of what we all live with now; technological innovation. Thank Synaptics in part for that one. San Jose-based Synaptics is involved in the “development, marketing, […]
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OCTOBER 2, 2020. Time is money and quick is better than slow and never is a one year certificate of deposit at the going rate of 0.15%, or lower.
Even stone can’t wait on that. Enjoy income? Fact. Even a fat 6% dividend isn’t a locked-in win when the underlying share price crumbles by 7%. Think AT&T. That’s more like cycling money around and that mandatory yet exasperating process takes years.
Meanwhile traders are winning, many times quickly, and by design. Why? This market is only busy shuffling sideways, or falling flat out of bed. Smart money uses both hands investing and trading.
Savvy money turns even more to trading when markets can’t consistently find up with either hand. Time is always busy and never waits or moves sideways. Think trading. Think GM. We are. The anatomy of the trade.
JULY 19, 2020. After close last Thursday Netflix put their Q2 facts on the table. Oops, it was really their suspicions that enraged. Shares were indeed priced for perfection. They promptly plunged roller-coaster style 11% in after-hours. But the fall actually began on Monday and didn’t abate until the close on Friday.
What’d the Los Gotos-based SVOD superstar say that enraged?
Simply the expectation of “2.5 million net new adds” for next quarter–Q3. They also said the COVID crush of new subs is “tapering off.” That did it.
O.K. Well, John Quincy Adams said “Facts are stubborn things.” And NFLX isn’t the only name in SVOD town. Like Tom Cruse said in The Color of Money, “Everybody’s doin’ it.” Disney’s doin’ it–since last November. So’s Hulu, AT&T with HBO MAX. Prime too. But what about the enduring pundit love for Disney? So Netflix v Disney, when “Facts Are Stub-Crazy Things. NFLX. Disney.”Â
