Rise Exit Repeat. Patterns That Pay.

MAY 9, 2020. What’s the market story? Saw tooth. That’s what stocks and markets do. Done. Stock price gyrations net out either up or down, eventually. Chode still sinks while cream still rises.
Meanwhile investors scheme, wait, hope, and scratch like simians. We’ve never been paid for scratching, and we’ve done a lot of that. Yes, the market action’s fun, or sickening. Someone talked about the market; “a tale told by an idiot.” Well, yeah. That guy obviously understood price-action.
Some are slower than others. Thus finally, we’re learning to make those ass-itching gyrations pay. We’re discovering the countless paydays along the way. We’re beginning to do so by crisp design. We’re sharing it with you so you can too. You probably are already.
Long-term investors leave bucket-loads on the table. Why? Because they ignore the majority of the movement. Yet truly savvy players invest and trade. We’re doing both now, and we’re geeked out of our minds. We hope you love it too. The cash for our example trade’s on the way.
“Rise Exit Repeat. Patterns That Pay.” Continue reading Rise Exit Repeat. Patterns That Pay.

DIM BULB or NIGHT LIGHT? American Electric Power.

APRIL, 17, 2020. Major utilities are running negatively both YTD and over the past six fugly months. We track nine. Is that still investing? Is it even “capital preservation,” when your stock’s going down? Markets go up and also come down, like boulders tumbling.
Somebody somewhere claimed that the vast majority of any stock’s annual move occurs in only 14 days. People say a lot of things, but this one is true. Utilities can mean having something sturdy that pays, regardless. Here’s another. Utils are not created equal.
Jim Cramer routinely provides more investable insight than anyone out there. Cramer likes AEP, and Con ED. They were the only two up for the week, 0.04% and 1.8% respectively. We’ve learned more from Jim than anyone else, yet things change and perspectives vary. How’s AEP now? We took a look into AEP to see if we were dealing with a “DIM BULB or NIGHT LIGHT? American Electric Power.” (Cover image, ColiNOOB) Continue reading DIM BULB or NIGHT LIGHT? American Electric Power.

Ass Armor. MasterCard.

APRIL 11, 2020. Summer’s right around the corner. Warm weather always brings out a filthy wave of muggers, a group blithely unconcerned by social distancing. But why worry? That’s yet another benefit of plastic. It armors your ass.
Over the past six fugly months the financials have backed up more than all others, a nasty 16.3% slap in the face. Of the 23 big ones we track only four are up. How about the cards? American Express down 16%, Capital One -28.7%, Discover cut in half, -46%.
Meanwhile the leaders MasterCard and Visa have given up only 2.36%, and 0.1%. And? Over the past 5 days the financials have been ripping it up; Capital One +44.4%, Discover +43.4%. Three of the top five best performers among the financials are cards. But that’s only one reason we’re thinking financial heavy weights, such as Mastercard. Another is that it’s financial infrastructure. Get some “Ass Armor. Mastercard.” Continue reading Ass Armor. MasterCard.

FICO. STILL SCORING.

APRIL 8, 2020. “Market timing” is often a derisive expression. But then did anyone predict Monday? Why mention this? Because savvy investing exists in between. Because Fair Isaac is a financial. Because financials are hated and poisonous now, right? FICO produced the 5TH highest return out of the 23 financials we track during Monday’s spectacular blow-out run. Is up 14.12% good?
FICO is much more than your credit score. The financial sector is a down-trodden wreck, so why talk that mess? “Payment holidays,” for one. This goddamn virus has created an economy-wide financial crisis. Face-to-face business has ceased and customer service is in overload. A month’s worth of customer service now occurs everyday. That’s business for FICO. Customer service?
Proper diversification calls for exposure to the financials. Yet banks are squashed. What’s left? Financial infrastructure. That’s why we’ve been thinking “FICO. STILL SCORING.” Continue reading FICO. STILL SCORING.

Kirkland Lake Gold. Mining For Facts.

APRIL 4, 2020. No one skips this monstrous spanking machine market. How ’bout gold? No, not even things that shine escape the spank. Zoom Video’s been shining. Following the Guardian beat-down article it more glows, in the dark, as a misleader, rather than a leader. Love it or not, yet it’s difficult to love a firm that announces its’ “halting feature development to focus on security and safety.” Isn’t that supposed to be job one?
But then Kirkland’s the question. Back in January when we last covered KL they were technically challenging a jaw-dropping three-year uptrend. And Now? “Kirkland Lake Gold. Mining For Facts.” Continue reading Kirkland Lake Gold. Mining For Facts.

F BOMB

MARCH 11, 2020. Back in 1957 Toyota landed at a derelict Rambler dealership deep in Hollywood. Nobody noticed. “Made in Japan” meant junk. Detroit owned American driving, and had since the beginning. During the mid-80’s the Japanese auto invasion reached critical mass. Buyers had noticed the quality difference. Detroit was caught lame, dopey, and bloated. The junk rolling off their production lines looked good, to them. Buyer felt otherwise.
Meanwhile, Japan’s spiritual egalitarian management style was producing a lean and reliable product line. Fuel economy mattered as well, and those quality-packed offerings carved up the U.S. auto market like a Samurai sword.
And it was business as usual for Detroit. Ford and Gm have habitually leaned backward rather than toward a transformative future. During the Yom Kippur War in 1973 OPEC hit an oil addicted west with an oil embargo. Gas lines wrapped around the block as motorists physically pushed eight cylinder boats toward busy pumps.
Oil trouble sent Detroit halfheartedly toward EV thinking. The obstacles were huge. Did they keep thinking long-term? No. The second oil again flowed they jettisoned the entire EV concept and packed their shaky prototypes into the crusher. They didn’t even leave an EV pilot light sparking. Now Tesla’s all over their backs.
The marvels of Detroit are many, including their repeated myopic refusal to tool for any future beyond next year. Detroit is a come from behind operator. That’s why Ford’s now an “F BOMB.” Continue reading F BOMB

The Good Refuse to Go. Kirkland Lake and Alteryx Prove Golden.

FEBRUARY 22, 2020.  The market never was a love song.  Often it’s a popping lotto box of bone break.  Doing the work don’t mean you’re gonna be loved.  Do something people don’t immediately understand and you may be treated like a weekend Elvis.
Kirkland Lake Gold gets it.  KL just bought a brighter future and beat the numbers like a gong.  Elvis.  They just reported again and now may be your moment.  When you grow EPS by 104%, and revenue by 51%, over the entire year, you may just be a pulsar.
We’ve also been strapped-up with Alteryx, keepin’ the faith and being paid.  We did just talk “Alteryx Again & Again.  The Pattern You Can Play.”  Now we’re back to report the results–theirs and ours.  Did Alteryx remain true to it’s ways?  Nonetheless, “The Good Refuse to Go.  Kirkland Lake and Alteryx Prove Golden.” Continue reading The Good Refuse to Go. Kirkland Lake and Alteryx Prove Golden.

Alteryx Again and Again. The Pattern You Can Play.

FEBRUARY 12, 2020. Patterns matter, like habits. Grasping their way matters more. On the Super Highway of Now data’s king and those without only pick around the edges. “Data” you patter? Think sports stats, or Invine-based Alteryx. Yup. AYX reports on Thursday, and there’s a pattern. That’s why we’re writing you now. We think this pattern is actionable.
Actionable insight is what Alteryx is also all about–using data analysis to drive productivity, direction, and focus. For our purpose the pattern’s in their chart. We’ve got those too. Each time AYX reports investors behave much the same way. We know that because we looked, and now’s the time to know.
When economies slow cyclicals slip to your portfolio’s back side. That’s a pattern also, that’s industrials, materials, staples, energy, real estate. What’s left? IT, secular growth, and that’s “Alteryx Again and Again. The Pattern You Can Play.” Continue reading Alteryx Again and Again. The Pattern You Can Play.

Jonesing For Tiny Devices. AMD. Lift Your Love Lamp.

FEBRUARY 8, 2020. Santa Clara California’s a semiconductor cage match and AMD’s there. AMD is also a bullet-train of growth. Out of 17 stocks we track in the space, AMD’s at the top in returns over six months, and 2nd YTD. And if you need a lift buy their stock, because they won’t be slowing to pluck you off the street.
“Street” you repeat? Well, you know Wall Street’s awesome. Think AMD. Where does the street send you when you beat? Lower. And whadda you get when you dominate? A grubby paper bag clinging to a sweaty 40oz. What did you expect?
Respect? Whadda you get for retina-detaching 300% y/y EPS acceleration? You get a 6% kick low in the gearbox.
Exactly why is Wall Street awesome again? Because they don’t take checks. You gotta pay in blood, even If you are the 500’s top performer 2019. But that’s O.K., because everybody’s still “Jonesing’ for Tiny Devices. AMD. Lift Your Love Lamp.” Continue reading Jonesing For Tiny Devices. AMD. Lift Your Love Lamp.

REIT Down the Street. 10% They Pay. MFA.

JANUARY 28, 2020. We’re inhabiting what’s known as an “expensive market.” The flight to safety, and quality, has seemingly left little to choose from if you like income. Well, perhaps not.
AT&T has for years been viewed as income and even safety. But that was before shares ran from the low $30s to $39. The dividend’s nice, but let’s face it. The company’s at best a barely-manageable mess.
We admit it. We used it for the dividend, until we found something we like better. Are there alternatives to the AT&T show? We take readers on a zip tour of the “REIT Down the Street. 10% They Pay. MFA.” Continue reading REIT Down the Street. 10% They Pay. MFA.