WELCOME TO

PORTFOLIO

REVOLVING DOORS

Things come in, Things go out.

As

most know, we have recently begun trading, on top of our long-term investing. Only appropriately so. They go hand-in-hand. Trading however is an entire set of disciplines, many new to us. Trading also means rapid portfolio turnover. That’s in part why our current hand is not diversified. Think gold miners–too many gold miners. In several recent pieces we’ve provided the thrills of our new trading vice. Now we provide the current position of our on-going investing journey.

Barrick Gold-

GOLD, 6-15-20 weekly — Barrick Gold’s been Jim Cramer’s pick of gold miners for several months now. On June 15th he referred to Newmont( Corp.NEW) as a “best of breed” gold miner, while interviewing Newmont CEO Tom Palmer. Barrick’s big, and sports a low”all-in sustaining cost.” Yet, in our opinion, Kirkland Lake Gold possesses the best fundamentals in the business, and has for some time(SJChart.)

-Newmont Corporation-

NEM, 6-15-20, WEEKLY — Newmont’s traded very well over the past six months–up 38%. That’s precisely why we took a flyer on it. We were mistaken. Our current position in NEM represents a clear failure of discipline, no doubt(SJChart.)

-Kirkland Lake Gold-

KL, 6-15-20, weekly — Kirkland Lake Gold is an example of fundamental perfection. KL’s problem is a shareholder base struggling to understand or trust managerial guidance. Prior to the acquisition of Detour Gold in 2019, KL had posted three straight years of nonstop share price growth, as you can see in the weekly chart above(SJChart.)

-American Electric Power-

AEP, 6-15-20, weekly — Playing “defense” isn’t risk-free. American Electric power has traded poorly for weeks. It lives below the S&P, substantially. When you fail to match the index it’s known as “under-performance.” Yes, you get the dividend, and in the longer run AEP’s a winner; up 25.2% over three years, and 80.9% over five, or 16% a year for five straight. Wonderful. That’s why picked it up. At times we’re impatient. That’s never paid. Over the last year AEP’s lost 6.9% with the dividend(SJChart.)

-AT&T-

T, 6-16-20, weekly — The telecoms have long been viewed as a “defensive” play. T’s 6.82% dividend is massive but perhaps not sustainable at a current payout ratio of 104.12%. Even if it is payable, it’s not creating any long term gains. T’s total return is negative over the past year and down 6.9% over three. Over five it’s returned 16.3% as of 6-16-20. That’s 3.2% a year. Yet T offers two plays(SJChart.)

-Take-Two Interactive Inc.-

TTWO, 6-16-20 weekly — TTWO is a COVID star. Take-Two’s resilience amid the stark COVID drop is amazing. Yet it makes sense. Where they go from here is now the question for shareholders, such as us. Again, our choice to jump in was witless. That’s why they call it discipline, and the struggle to display said never ends(SJChart.)

The Best

and

Brightest.

Below

are positions we believe will prove long-term holds. We will likely be “trading around a core position” with many. As market conditions and price-action allow, we will trade half of each, while holding the underlying. As the price-action rises, and falls, we will be selling and buying back.

-Alteryx Inc.-

AYX, 6-16-20. weekly — Along with Take-Two, Alteryx and the secular growth cloud stories have held up and surged amid the pandemic. We’ve play AYX repeatedly for very nice gains. The September revaluation of many tech stars brought AYX down hard. However that came on the heels of a gain of over 20% in August. As is visible in this weekly chart, the price-action now challenges that previous high of September ’19(SJChart.)

-NVIDIA Corp.-

NVDA, 6-16-20, WEEKLY — NVIDIA’s post COVID climb has broken trend, yet shareholder love is near cult-level. Think Tesla. 1. Back in late September ’18 NVDA launched it’s eighth-generation Turing chip architecture. Their new gaming card was based on the new design. Morgan Stanley reported the card’s performance as “disappointing.” That was then(SJChart.)

-Advanced Micro Devices-

AMD, 6-16-20, weekly — AMD is building at 9 nanometers and smaller, and that’s smaller than main long-time rival Intel. Their graphics chips(GPUs) will be featured in this year’s video game refresh cycle–second half of ’20. Meanwhile, their laptop business is strong, along with their shares(SJChart.)

-Microsoft Corp.-

MSFT, 6-16-20, weekly — Microsoft has turned out to be a place in the sun. It’s COVID drop proved shallow with a V-shaped recovery. Over the past three months MSFT has returned 31.97%. What’s not to love?(SJChart.)

Portfolios

are organic creations. Change is their nature. Different mixes work for different markets. Sound portfolios are built for gains, while reducing risk as much as possible. Trimming winners and cutting losers are mandatory.

Sector rotation chasing is a losing game, while adapting to accommodate and take advantage of widespread market shift is savvy. Some portfolios can accomplish most of the above. What’s in those? Proven winners, with some speculation for spice. As always, good luck and good investing.

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Additional resources:

Investopedia.com. Seriously Wonderful. Fact.

http://www.investopedia.com/

Charles Schwab. In Our Opinion, the best broker going.

https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/client_home

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Be careful. Do the work. Have patience, with yourself. Never put your dreams away.

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