New adds to our portfolio. Alibaba–BABA, Brinks–BCO.
Even newer cut–Netflix. Small shaves–Amazon, Facebook.
Below find our current holdings, really. The first three form our slightly larger positions. We invest long-term, 2 years or greater. Markets go both ways, yet some of our future can be seen clearly now. That is our target. We also realize that we are not strictly diversified. Quite clearly, we position radically for trend-driven secular shift(e-commerce, SVOD, etc.) All dividends are reinvested. Our average time horizon is now 11 years. Our holdings include 8 equity positions plus cash(averaging 10%.)
StockJaw.com wishes “Good Luck” to everyone willing. You know what we mean.
1. Amazon–AMZN IT, Internet, Direct Marketing.
“Be there with us in the end–when we do everything, everywhere. We” pay ya.”
Amazon remains the epic growth stock of the age. Founder/CEO Jeff Bezos is doing what the Soviets couldn’t. AMZN is taking over the world, but in such a way that they become integral to non-retail industries. Amazon doesn’t want every industry. They want to sell goods and services to every industry. “Look regulators–no monopoly.” Forget the P/E on AMZN. Buy on a 3%-8% pull-back, if not bad company news. Amazon passes on a lot of conference call questions. Link up for our unzipped take on World Killer Amazon:
“That Smiley Amazon Show.”
13.7% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost basis: $637.26.
Morningstar fair value; $1200.00.
Amazon Investor Relations:
2. Alibaba–BABA IT, Internet Software & Services.
Alibaba is the Amazon Storm of the East, with maybe an even better business model.
Alibaba is the Jaw-dropping Chinese corollary to Amazon. Widely viewed as an eCommerce giant, Alibaba more accurately is a market creator. It creates the digital marketplace bringing together both buyers and sellers. Unlike AMZN, Alibaba does not own/sell merchandise, nor does it need a stupefying network of fulfillment centers, or a military-equivalent logistics wing, to service operations. Along with great potential, Alibaba is a Chinese company, subject to both shifting Chinese political whims, and investor information quality and quantity issues.
12.34% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost basis: $158.68.
Morningstar fair value; $175.00.
Alibaba Investor Relations:
3. Alphabet–GOOG, GOOGL IT, Internet, Software & S.
The EU’s $2.7b. anti-trust fine is the cost of doing business for Alphabet. That issue irons out over time. They have $90b. and own 90% of EU search. No competitor stands in position to threaten Alphabet. Love this oligopoly search/advertising juggernaut, and mother of Waymo. Who knows what else co-founders Page and Brin may cook up in that backyard they call Other Bets? Mash the link for our full report on Alphabet, after the arrival of “Ruthless Ruth.”
Our sweeping and nuts and bolts look at Alphabet:
“Google–What are they up to in there?”
13.7% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost bases: GOOG $605.98, GOOGL $680.90.
Morningstar fair value: $910.00.
Alphabet Investor Relations, such as it is:
Alphabet sports perhaps the worst Investor Relations website we work with. iTunes users might like it.
4. Facebook–FB IT, Internet, Software & Services.
Facebook remains a phenom. FB owns mobile connectedness. FB monetized mobile. They draw top talent. They will own mobile video messaging and chat, maybe VR. Good conference calls–a little promotional. Really like Sheryl Sandberg. Love or hate him, Mark Zuckerberg is brilliant and killing it–takin’ a party year off from Harvard.
9.59% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost basis: $108.01.
Morningstar fair value; $155.00.
Facebook Investor Relations:
5. Activision-Blizzard–ATVI IT, Software.
Activision-Blizzard will replace lost revenue from declining World of Warcraft. subs.
Activision is the model for the E game industry. Enduring engagement is their mantra, and they pioneered the path. It works. All follow ATVI’s model now, and they’re getting better at it. Yet, heard of e-sports, or World of Warcraft, Call of Duty, Overwatch? TTWo and EA are also great “3rd party publishers.”
9.2% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost basis: $38.53.
Morningstar fair value; $42.00.
Activision-Blizzard Investor Relations;
6. Lockheed Martin–LMT Industrial, Defense.
You want this–but you want it cheap? Really?
LMT 2016–37% of revenue came from government contracts for which LMT was the sole bidder. That’s like being spotted 37 points. CEO Marillyn Hewson is leading LMT toward greater strength. Conference calls are super clear, direct, non-promotional, and efficient. LMT, a stable 5%-8% grower with a low .61 beta(volatility), and a 2.61% annual dividend yield–at current share price $277.61. Trump? He likes both defense and Lockheed Martin. Look inside with our 4th of July report on Lockheed Martin, “Lockheed in Trump Land.”
Read our take on Lockheed in Trump Land:
9.65% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost basis: $254.65.
Morningstar fair value; $279.00.
Lockheed-Martin Investor Relations:
7. United Health Group–UNH Healthcare, Providers.
United Health is best in class health care management, and pharmacy benefits manager(pbm). Love or hate such companies, UNH has displayed adaptability in a rapidly shifting marketplace. They probably have some of your money. Why not get some back?
5.32% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost basis: $164.03.
Morningstar fair value; $143.00.
United Health Group Investor Relations:
UPDATE; 10-10-17: Last week we sold our remaining piece of a long-term NFLX position. By rule of thumb and volatility, we’d taken profits, ultimately too early. The stock simply continued climbing, leaving us with a strong yet partial piece. Time to punt. We sold out at $191.02sh., netting an 89%, total return. NFLX remains on our watch list, too expensive on merits, and too expensive in this elevated market. Love Reed Hastings, the thesis, but pass for just now.
Netflix–NFLX IT, Internet & Direct Marketing.
Netflix continues to lead the world in streaming video on demand–SVOD. With founder Reed Hastings driving Netflix has become a household name and gone world-wide. NFLX’s data ball leads the industry–way. Read our extensive coverage of NFLX in “Pirates of Coax. Cannon Fire.” Flashing global last year, Netflix is building internet coverage and speeds in places such as Sao Palo, Brazil. Build it and we’ll beam it. Now here’s your new credit card so you can subscribe. Changes to net neutrality may undercut the NFLX thesis. That possibility is big. We’re staying, for now. Great conference calls. Clear, direct, and non-promotional.
Our cost basis: $100.99.
Netflix Investor Relations:
Now 0.0% or our portfolio.
8. Brinks–BCO Industrial, Commercial Services.
“Go ahead–screw with me.”
Brinks is precisely who you think they are–the 157 year-old security company. Brinks is an international player in secure transportation of cash and other valuables, a cash processor, and other cash management services. Out of three main players, Brinks is the dominant player in three of the ten international categories within which they operate. Brinks is second in the remaining seven.
Read our launch piece on Brinks:
“What to say when a 157 year-old gets serious.”
4.84% of Total Equities Held.
Our cost basis: $75.51.
Brinks Investor Relations:
CASH 21%, up from 10%(10-10-17).
U.S. Dollars. Preferred range 10%-40%. Cash held outside IRAs held in CDs. It counts and it’s good drill. We do not hedge or use FX markets.
StockJaw is working to bring you greater detail.
When we buy or sell you’ll find it right here.
Images sourced from Pixabay.