MARCH 2, 2018. As investors our job is to adapt and overcome. Go lights fade to caution. Job One is locating our new leading landmarks. You know those-rates and inflation. Both seem over-hyped. Human error as risk ranks much higher. Squirrelly fellow shareholders also present a much larger temporary risk.
We’re looking always, and relaxing. Accept yesterday, and volatility. Pretend it’s all just a little breeze in the Keys.
Waves call for relaxed balance and patience. How hard is that? Got a better plan? For us all this means market-spotting. Enjoy. Got a better plan? What’s a G Bike? Is that smoke coming from your portfolio?Read more
FEBRUARY 26, 2018. Our once drowsy equity markets just displayed a sample of savage fury. Ever witnessed a car door ripped off it’s hinges? Bull markets end. Absolutely everyone is holding their breath, and pondering portfolio shifts. That’s precisely what we’ve been doing for two weeks. Bulls slow and as investors we should expect over-reaction when they slow. What slows raging equities?
Some say–The Economist for example–that America is “juicing” a “mature” business cycle, and doing so to an unprecedented level. Big and growing debt is the backlash. That means current policy is experimental. And guess what? Nobody in charge has any real experience, including our new fed chair J. Powell.
Our old bull is being loaded down by our rising rates. In theory, we should eventually feel the collateral constraints of servicing our new even higher national debt. However, that would require responsible fiscal policy. Do we have any of that? Does Washington currently possess the leadership to usher our markets and economy through significant change? Tax cuts are not free. Our system was not sprinkled by magic. We were instead bundled with more long term debt. This “juice” contains all the salubrious qualities of ISIS. More immediately, where will investors seeking growth, stability, or income go? Many seeking income will shift to bonds. They will abandon equities like rats, once bonds hit that magic yield space. Stockjaw will not be joining that move.Read more
FEBRUARY 12, 2018. Europe’s great this morning. Both Shanghai indexes are up. These are always good signs for a U.S. open. But really, who knows which nervous system traders and investors will bring with them this morning? We’re calm. Why sweat? Markets are sort of like volcanoes. Clues exist, but don’t trust ’em too much.
Today STOCKjAW’s keeping our head. We’re checking fundamentals for TTWO and T. We’re also looking for sales.Read more
FEBRUARY 11, 2018. They’re back. Just in time for ax season. The EquiClowns refuse to fully vanish from the footlights of financial farce. But you knew this was coming, as did we. #s are revised. And fraud #s are as a rule revised upward.
No. It’s not magnitude here, not this time. The fun facts hare involve what we now know they lost. What else could they lose? Done your taxes?Read more
FEBRUARY 10, 2018. Remember the long-out money that finally came creeping back late last year? Trial by fire, flame-thrower really. New money floated in swarms to market homes, following endless empty years in the wilderness. Our market promptly exploded. One lever-jerk release of pent-up fury. All bore witness. Retail investors wanted some. What about now? Does “horror” capture the welcome received by returners? What now? Are you just in? Thinking about leaving?
This week ripped a gap in most portfolios. We sunk 6.4%. We trimmed , and cut, prior to the crash. We’ve only bought since then. What’d we sell in the run-up? What’s worth buying now? Making faces at the market.Read more
FEBRUARY 9, 2018. 4:38AM. We’re in. That’s it. After the lights change is not the time to second guess your long-held beliefs. That applies to both drag racing and equity investing. Nitos nice. It’s also explosive–that’s exactly why they use it. Markets move, and that’s precisely why we invest. Movements of algo-driven rage are not however the sort of movement anyone wants.
Ever wonder why dragsters are so long? For those who haven’t, it’s to keep the front wheels on the track when the driver punches it. The front wheels of this market left the track on Friday. Regardless of the non-systemic reasons, think long-term bargains, and just maybe months from now you’ll be smiling big just like us.Read more
FEBRUARY 7, 2018. Did you hear the rest of the FAQ? Yet another fabulous financial product turns to dust before our very eyes. More importantly, that creepy explosive “product,” the XIV, was why we all lost money, again. Really? Remember the rotten CDO, collateralize Debt Obligations? Same guys, again. Guess what? Regulators don’t seem to mind. It’s not their money vanishing down the pool drain. This is a job for Denzel. Remember the one where he’s working at Home Depot? Yeah–like that.Read more