Brain Pill. Two Minutes. MSFT v. GOOG.

MARCH 28, 2020. Spring is sneaking in as our attention is splintered.
We’re petting the cat and peeling thunder and pouring rain won’t stop that.. We’re now under the gun and if that hasn’t rocked your socks then you’re ready for that chaise lounge helium trip up to the stratosphere. Remember that guy in California and his helium balloon lawn chair? He got a call from the FAA. What’s next when both the light and the air grow thin?
Light and air in market terms mean the essentials and the giants: phone, power, and those near a trillion. The smart and savvy warned us earlier that tech would be autopsied in all this.  It was. Yet, the Stay-at-Home ecosystem means more of the bigs–more band width, for more remote working, more gaming, streaming, online shopping. Hum, who does all that?
China brewed this virus and it’s now demonstrating this expanding tech truth pushing up behind.  We need more not only from VZ, T, and UPS, but also from GOOG, AMZN, and MSFT. That leads us right back to thinking big. When the economic storm boils you wanna bunk with the bigs. That’s why we’re having a “Brain Pill. Two Minutes. MSFT v. GOOG.”  
Continue reading Brain Pill. Two Minutes. MSFT v. GOOG.

Harbor. Here Comes The Storm.

MARCH, 31, 2019. Times change. But god it’s been nice. For years we rode that rising wave. Everyone had a great time. Now it’s curling if not crashing. Storms have come to our formally splendid seas. Many have harbored. As the placid and neat turned angry, utils have grown too expensive to buy. That’s how it goes. Did you grab your slice? Upward and onward we go. Oops, we meant simply onward, and up and down.
The S&P can’t hold 2815 with either wet hand. Our fed’s given up attempting to predict what he isn’t reading. Our bull’s shuffling restlessly. Long term investors are rethinking their approach, as every spike simply melts away into sad little puddles. Has your thinking shifted? Still attempting to climb in that smart slow way? Yeah, us too. But we’re scattered.
Predictable pauses had for years led gracefully into plumy runs of joy and slap-happy success. We’re here to help you forget all that. The way forward feels different now, more difficult, and clearly less promising. We’re struggling to maintain focus. We’re ready to instantly sell any three hundred dollar move. But we did exactly that when ETSY reported, and were promptly left behind.
Market storm socks are stiff. Headwinds shift and gales whip ugly everyday. The warnings are in the water. Our markets now, as seen through five mega-leaders and their clutch of sectors. FANG will not prove a pristine harbor this time. Nor will healthcare. We’re all gonna get wet. Continue reading Harbor. Here Comes The Storm.

Google. Cash Swarm.

JULY 26, 2018. Smack talking about Google or Amazon is like dangling some stamped pot-medal chandelier in the ballroom of Wayne Manor. Nice. The Joker–oops, we mean Elizabeth Warren, seems to feel that the squeaky-clean European Commission is all good using Google like a cash machine. $2.7 billion last year and $5.01 billion this month. Very nice.
Perhaps the truly laudable senior senator from Massachusetts should focus on the CFPB, or EU Airbus subsidies.
Meanwhile, Batman–oops, Alphabet, soars to all-time highs off the glory of a monster $11.75 EPS score. The consensus estimate was $9.58.
What do you say when an $870b. company cranks out a retina-detaching 23% revenue growth rate, in constant currency terms, after turning 20? What do you say about Alphabet’s obscene cash mountain? Well, you say “Sorry for the smack–we love you.
Where’s the buy counter?” Continue reading Google. Cash Swarm.

Investor Stress Test. Having Fun Yet?

FEBRUARY 10, 2018. Remember the side-lined money that finally came creeping back late last year? Trial by fire, flame-thrower really. New money floated in swarms to market homes, following endless empty years in the wilderness. Our market promptly exploded. One lever-jerk release of pent-up fury. All bore witness. Retail investors wanted some. What about now? Does “horror” capture the welcome received by returners? What now? Are you just in? Thinking about leaving?

This week ripped a gap in most portfolios. We sunk 6.4%. We trimmed , and cut, prior to the crash. We’ve only bought since then. What’d we sell in the run-up? What’s worth buying now? Making faces at the market. Continue reading Investor Stress Test. Having Fun Yet?