Ford – STOCKjAW.COM

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Zero to Eighty% in Six Months. Ford.

NOVEMBER 19, 2020. Pop the hood on your car and sneak a peek. Right. WTF? The once recognizable is gone. Car guts look very different now, as does the car business. Ford’s looking in too–into it’s own business. What are they seeing? “Trucks and SUVs–all good. Love that. The dumpy sedan’s dead. Broom that.” What else? The Chinese operation’s politicized and chaotic. And then there’s our shareholder base.
Customers love the F-150, and batteries too. F’s blending those next year. The new Mustang Mach E’s flat rubber-burning evil, with no range. The revamped Ford Explorer launch was a monkey rodeo. Jesus. Empty showroom floors never please, or sell. That means you have to “incentivize” customers to buy cars they can’t touch. They did, incentivize. The press and public excitement surrounding the new Bronco is through the roof.
Meanwhile F’s share price has rocked heavenward by 80% in just six months. That’s promising. Or perhaps extended? From its’ Dearborn base just outside of Detroit, Ford’s shooting for the moon with EVs, and running on pure adrenaline. The real threat of extinction will do that to a company. Extinction feels very real when you sport a $4 share price–$3.96 back on March 23rd this year.
Well, again, that puny share price has been seriously juiced since by a crazed confluence of market factors. There’s also a whole new segment of shareholders who care nothing for dividends, raging risk, or the company’s years of ruinous struggle. O.K. Yet, the question now is, do you believe in “Zero to Eighty% in Six Months. Ford.”(Cover photo. 2020 Ford Shelby GT-500)

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F BOMB

MARCH 11, 2020. Back in 1957 Toyota landed at a derelict Rambler dealership deep in Hollywood. Nobody noticed. “Made in Japan” meant junk. Detroit owned American driving, and had since the beginning. During the mid-80’s the Japanese auto invasion reached critical mass. Buyers had noticed the quality difference. Detroit was caught lame, dopey, and bloated. The junk rolling off their production lines looked good, to them. Buyer felt otherwise.
Meanwhile, Japan’s spiritual egalitarian management style was producing a lean and reliable product line. Fuel economy mattered as well, and those quality-packed offerings carved up the U.S. auto market like a Samurai sword.
And it was business as usual for Detroit. Ford and Gm have habitually leaned backward rather than toward a transformative future. During the Yom Kippur War in 1973 OPEC hit an oil addicted west with an oil embargo. Gas lines wrapped around the block as motorists physically pushed eight cylinder boats toward busy pumps.
Oil trouble sent Detroit halfheartedly toward EV thinking. The obstacles were huge. Did they keep thinking long-term? No. The second oil again flowed they jettisoned the entire EV concept and packed their shaky prototypes into the crusher. They didn’t even leave an EV pilot light sparking. Now Tesla’s all over their backs.
The marvels of Detroit are many, including their repeated myopic refusal to tool for any future beyond next year. Detroit is a come from behind operator. That’s why Ford’s now an “F BOMB.”

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F. All Trucked UP?

DECEMBER 31, 2019. Find them anywhere from Key Largo to Shenzhen. Ford’s vehicles roam the planet. Their problems are planet-scale as well. Planets are moving targets, and so is business. How many people even want to own cars anymore?
Ford’s moving as well, away from sedans and directly to electric drive. Their playbook calls for a stable of 40 EVs within the next twelve months. Many exist now. Think the sparkling new Mustang Mach E. Can investors take an electrifying ride along with a company amid wholesale transformation? We take a quick look to see if you can. “F. All Trucked UP?”(Cover photo; the 2020 Ford commercial Transit. It and the Transit Connect own Europe.)

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Ford Fugly. Can You?

Halloween, 2019. “A horror story” you say? Kevin Burns, Juul CEO, comment reported by whistle-blower lawsuit citing “contaminated nicotine pods:” Burns; “Half our customers are drunk and vaping like mo-fos, Who the fuck’s going to notice the quality of our pods?” It’s a horror show when your company’s CEO attempts to make up for lost fruit-flavored revenues by purportedly shipping contaminated product. And referring to customers as addictive drunks? It’s all good bro.
O.K., so does Ford’s trunk load of troubles still seem so horrific? Let’s see. The share price hasn’t ceased dropping since the 31% EPS beat reported last Wednesday. Sedan sales dropped 29% in Q3. Don’t forget looming talks with the UAW. And then there’s this comment. “Moderate, strong, and stable.” Hum. That’s what Powell said yesterday as he cut rates for the third time.
“Moderate growth, a strong employment market, and stable inflation.” Hold-up. What’s the chatter about the holidays and retail sales and the health of the last leg standing–the U.S. consumer? “Stronger than last year.” And Q3’s GDP? 1.9%. Taken together, that’s not all bad, and neither is Ford. Let’s look at “Ford.Fugly. Can You?”

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Junk Squawk. Whatever. FORD. What’s Next.

SEPTEMBER 14, 2019. TV news. What’s not to love?
Who saw this? The feds rolled another dawn raid to net suspects. They followed that with a perp-walk, which led to a news cycle, about UAW leadership. Hum. Why? Both current United Auto Workers president Gary Jones, and past president Dennis Williams, among others, are suspects in an on-going federal probe concerning corruption. Wow. Flashy news no doubt, however the story behind that is more Ford’s concern–one concern.
GM’s now in contract talks with the UAW, and Ford’s up next. GM’s contract with the union ends tonight. Ford’s does not. And?
Ford’s a turnaround story. Labor is but part of that process. What else? California, D.C., China, and Moody’s. They’re at 7 World Trade Center. Did we leave any junk out? How about that Ford’s climbed 23.53%YTD, and 5.47% over the past twenty days? That’s a turnaround right?
Can we keep the dividend? “Junk Squawk. Whatever. FORD. What’s Next.”(Cover photo; Ford’s 2020 GT-500 Shelby Mustang. Cirrus Crisp.)

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Ford. Fabulous Still? If It Runs On Gas, It’s Time Is Running Out.

AUGUST 2, 2019. Summer’s end always seems near when the calendar opens on August. Who doesn’t feel it? The pool splashes on, but not the same. Seasons’ change fills the air, and it fills the air for Ford.
It’s been 116 years since the T and 57 more since the Mustang. Every Ford from then to now has been pushed by gas. Gas is now sad. As the planet chokes the auto industry shambles for form–compact, sedan, gas, big, small, diesel, shared, hailed, hybrid, or EV. It’s the menu at McDonald’s.
Some say the Germans are in the lead, again, soon to be offering real choice. The Chevy Volt’s a joke, and the Toyota Prius isn’t. The Tesla galaxy’s in trouble. Musk’s on a leash, as is our Great Electric Hope.
America’s need is grand and we hate limits. Besides, where you gonna plug-in?
Ford’s trucked between the battery technology rock, and the environmental hard case. Meanwhile the company lives on big products that rely on cheap gas. Now they’re livin’ on a big dividend promise as well. The vice is closing, socially, despite the price of gas and the shale revolution. If it runs on gas its’ time is running out. Ford. Fabulous Still? (Lead photo; Sunset over Detroit.)