Harbor. Here Comes The Storm.

MARCH, 31, 2019. Times change. But god it’s been nice. For years we rode that rising wave. Everyone had a great time. Now it’s curling if not crashing. Storms have come to our formally splendid seas. Many have harbored. As the placid and neat turned angry, utils have grown too expensive to buy. That’s how it goes. Did you grab your slice? Upward and onward we go. Oops, we meant simply onward, and up and down.
The S&P can’t hold 2815 with either wet hand. Our fed’s given up attempting to predict what he isn’t reading. Our bull’s shuffling restlessly. Long term investors are rethinking their approach, as every spike simply melts away into sad little puddles. Has your thinking shifted? Still attempting to climb in that smart slow way? Yeah, us too. But we’re scattered.
Predictable pauses had for years led gracefully into plumy runs of joy and slap-happy success. We’re here to help you forget all that. The way forward feels different now, more difficult, and clearly less promising. We’re struggling to maintain focus. We’re ready to instantly sell any three hundred dollar move. But we did exactly that when ETSY reported, and were promptly left behind.
Market storm socks are stiff. Headwinds shift and gales whip ugly everyday. The warnings are in the water. Our markets now, as seen through five mega-leaders and their clutch of sectors. FANG will not prove a pristine harbor this time. Nor will healthcare. We’re all gonna get wet. Continue reading Harbor. Here Comes The Storm.

Google. Cash Swarm.

JULY 26, 2018. Smack talking about Google or Amazon is like dangling some stamped pot-medal chandelier in the ballroom of Wayne Manor. Nice. The Joker–oops, we mean Elizabeth Warren, seems to feel that the squeaky-clean European Commission is all good using Google like a cash machine. $2.7 billion last year and $5.01 billion this month. Very nice.
Perhaps the truly laudable senior senator from Massachusetts should focus on the CFPB, or EU Airbus subsidies.
Meanwhile, Batman–oops, Alphabet, soars to all-time highs off the glory of a monster $11.75 EPS score. The consensus estimate was $9.58.
What do you say when an $870b. company cranks out a retina-detaching 23% revenue growth rate, in constant currency terms, after turning 20? What do you say about Alphabet’s obscene cash mountain? Well, you say “Sorry for the smack–we love you.
Where’s the buy counter?” Continue reading Google. Cash Swarm.

The Water’s Fine. Is That A Discharge Hatch? Being In The Wrong Place Sucks.

MARCH 2, 2018. As investors our job is to adapt and overcome. Go lights fade to caution. Job One is locating our new leading landmarks. You know those-rates and inflation. Both seem over-hyped. Human error as risk ranks much higher. Squirrelly fellow shareholders also present a much larger temporary risk.
We’re looking always, and relaxing. Accept yesterday, and volatility. Pretend it’s all just a little breeze in the Keys.

Waves call for relaxed balance and patience. How hard is that? Got a better plan? For us all this means market-spotting. Enjoy. Got a better plan? What’s a G Bike? Is that smoke coming from your portfolio? Continue reading The Water’s Fine. Is That A Discharge Hatch? Being In The Wrong Place Sucks.

Nobody Calls This. Nobody Knows.

February 6, 2018. 4:34 AM. On Monday U.S. markets featured fear, algorithm maddness, and the largest intraday drop in history. This after tens of billions of long-idle cash crashed back into the market over the past 7 weeks. Retail investors jumped back in with abandon, just in time to catch a drop they normally hand out market-sickness bags for–just like on airplanes. While clutching our sick-bag yesterday, we bought price-slashed T. A trailing P/E of 8, with a 5.4% dividend. Guess what? Bet that play works. And on deck today?

M o r e selling pressure.
Guess what hordes of those just-back-in investors will do today? We will not be among them. Nor should you. We’re not here to kill our bull. We’ve smelled metallic before. Continue reading Nobody Calls This. Nobody Knows.