Our Portfolio. Really.

JUNE 16, 2020 Our recovery from the COVID drop has been spectacular, quick, complex, and shifting. The market’s broadening, now, including the financials, and cyclicals. And what’s that about? Speculation, not economic expansion.
But it’s also reflects investors repositioning at smart prices for more recovery.
Opportunity knocks daily now. It’s a mix of the too expensive and the about to be repeatedly beaten.
Think the air and cruise lines. The easy money’s already been made. It’s all battle field roulette for them going forward. Look for the massive cracks and gaping holes in those businesses.
Trading is new to us and \we traded furiously for three weeks. Then we put our hands in our pockets and simply hawked over the action for the past two. Below is what’s left. We made money and mistakes. We lost no money. Why? In part because we didn’t sell what sunk below the waves. Credibility flows from clarity. See that now in “Our Portfolio. Really.” Continue reading Our Portfolio. Really.

Brain Pill. Two Minutes. MSFT v. GOOG.

MARCH 28, 2020. Spring is sneaking in as our attention is splintered.
We’re petting the cat and peeling thunder and pouring rain won’t stop that.. We’re now under the gun and if that hasn’t rocked your socks then you’re ready for that chaise lounge helium trip up to the stratosphere. Remember that guy in California and his helium balloon lawn chair? He got a call from the FAA. What’s next when both the light and the air grow thin?
Light and air in market terms mean the essentials and the giants: phone, power, and those near a trillion. The smart and savvy warned us earlier that tech would be autopsied in all this.  It was. Yet, the Stay-at-Home ecosystem means more of the bigs–more band width, for more remote working, more gaming, streaming, online shopping. Hum, who does all that?
China brewed this virus and it’s now demonstrating this expanding tech truth pushing up behind.  We need more not only from VZ, T, and UPS, but also from GOOG, AMZN, and MSFT. That leads us right back to thinking big. When the economic storm boils you wanna bunk with the bigs. That’s why we’re having a “Brain Pill. Two Minutes. MSFT v. GOOG.”  
Continue reading Brain Pill. Two Minutes. MSFT v. GOOG.

The Hunker

MARCH 18, 2020. Centennial storms happen more frequently now. Thus the “once in 100 years” line is wholly meaningless. Canned goods are still good, and still canned. Katrina was tragic and also an apt analogy to our market, and now our economy.
The Ka Ka’s sharply hit the props when TV waves bow beneath the weight of canned policy verbiage from Capitol Hill and your closed library. That’s why Reed Hastings built Netflix.
Meanwhile, financial facilitation and relief thinking is said to be coursing on Capitol Hill. We’ll see. Much of what the Fed actually does exists below the media line. Only financial professionals even understand the repo market and Fed actions that maintain liquidity.
The fed’s doing those things. Yet banks and REITs are disastrous.
The Fed’s for real, but not alone. Being informed is essential, but bathing in “we’re making sure” isn’t. We’re watching closely yet shuffling in a dose of “the Hunker.” Continue reading The Hunker

Holiday Moments With Mr. Softie

DECEMBER 16, 2018. looking for resilience in a turbulent market? Know this. Even the nearest and dearest are slugging it out with the down-suck.
As anti-trust talk swirls, not everyone is equally vulnerable. Remember Microsoft vs. the United States? Back in the ’80’s the feds turned the big guns on Mr. Softie. Facing an onslaught powered by bottomless federal cash, Mr. Softie smirked and swung up a middle finger. Is MSFT doing the same to the downturn? Cage matchs: AMZN vs. MSFT, MSFT vs. itself, and both vs. the market. Want some? Many do. Sj takes a look. Continue reading Holiday Moments With Mr. Softie

Who’s Up For A Fight? Bring Camping Gear. This May Take A While.

April 10, 2018. The very real drama of gigantic lawsuits doesn’t all occur in court. AT&T’s play for Time-Warner, and a potentially brighter future, is growing hot. The date and time are set. Are you staying in for the fight?
Meanwhile Harvard dropout mega-billionaire Mark Zuckerberg trolls the halls of congress on a meet and greet redemption tour. And today the Facebook pontif presents the company’s case before a packed congressional subcommittee primed for ranting, and maybe regulating. Continue reading Who’s Up For A Fight? Bring Camping Gear. This May Take A While.