DECEMBER 6, 2020. We’ve been trading our asses off. Jesus Christos. How hard can it be to spot a hold at a price? Harder everyday. Why? Valuations. Repeat “multiple expansion,” atop a troubled economy. And how does that end? Fugly, every fugly time. “Hunt the beaten down cyclicals” you say? “Build a barbell” you say? Well, of course.
That approach says balance lockdown plays with recovery plays. Uh hum. Why do you suppose we’ve just covered Ford and GM?
This story’s simple. Narrow markets, such as we’ve had for months, squeeze money into the few plays that are working. Think the mega-caps, Tesla too. Those monster runs are a bit chasey and slippery anti-trust questions now.
And the already hot cyclicals and remaining lockdown plays? Multiple expansion. And what’s that? Inflated share prices residing on fixed fundamentals. Who pays up, and again, for the exact same earnings? Absolutely everyone. That changes when earnings come in light. Oh boy. And what does that look like? Fugly, sudden, rude.
Did we mention–we’ve been trading our asses off? We’re investors and that means trading too. That’s what we do. And we’re “Being Paid in Waves. Day Trading Alteryx.”
NOVEMBER 19, 2020. Pop the hood on your car and sneak a peek. Right. WTF? The once recognizable is gone. Car guts look very different now, as does the car business. Ford’s looking in too–into it’s own business. What are they seeing? “Trucks and SUVs–all good. Love that. The dumpy sedan’s dead. Broom that.” What else? The Chinese operation’s politicized and chaotic. And then there’s our shareholder base.
Customers love the F-150, and batteries too. F’s blending those next year. The new Mustang Mach E’s flat rubber-burning evil, with no range. The revamped Ford Explorer launch was a monkey rodeo. Jesus. Empty showroom floors never please, or sell. That means you have to “incentivize” customers to buy cars they can’t touch. They did, incentivize. The press and public excitement surrounding the new Bronco is through the roof.
Meanwhile F’s share price has rocked heavenward by 80% in just six months. That’s promising. Or perhaps extended? From its’ Dearborn base just outside of Detroit, Ford’s shooting for the moon with EVs, and running on pure adrenaline. The real threat of extinction will do that to a company. Extinction feels very real when you sport a $4 share price–$3.96 back on March 23rd this year.
Well, again, that puny share price has been seriously juiced since by a crazed confluence of market factors. There’s also a whole new segment of shareholders who care nothing for dividends, raging risk, or the company’s years of ruinous struggle. O.K. Yet, the question now is, do you believe in “Zero to Eighty% in Six Months. Ford.”(Cover photo. 2020 Ford Shelby GT-500)
NOVEMBER 14, 2020. Trendless markets blow with the winds. Pfizer’s vaccine announcement on Monday sent markets soaring. The remainder of the week maundered and jerked sideways. Yet trading can make that work, when you know the tools. Knowing these tools is more than worth it for “12.6% in Eleven Days. Goldman’s Repeating Pattern.”Read more
Six in California, five in Colorado, four in Michigan, four more in Oklahoma, one in Washington, and Oregon, and Florida, four more in Maine, and online–and now in Arizona, with the brand new acquisition of Hydroponic Depot, along with the state’s pending Prop 207 calling for legalization. All right then. It seems Grow Generation’s on […]Read more
Link to the Real. It Pays. The images on the screen haven’t always moved when touched. Poking and swiping at our phones or most everything else is yet another example of what we all live with now; technological innovation. Thank Synaptics in part for that one. San Jose-based Synaptics is involved in the “development, marketing, […]Read more
OCTOBER 2, 2020. Time is money and quick is better than slow and never is a one year certificate of deposit at the going rate of 0.15%, or lower.
Even stone can’t wait on that. Enjoy income? Fact. Even a fat 6% dividend isn’t a locked-in win when the underlying share price crumbles by 7%. Think AT&T. That’s more like cycling money around and that mandatory yet exasperating process takes years.
Meanwhile traders are winning, many times quickly, and by design. Why? This market is only busy shuffling sideways, or falling flat out of bed. Smart money uses both hands investing and trading.
Savvy money turns even more to trading when markets can’t consistently find up with either hand. Time is always busy and never waits or moves sideways. Think trading. Think GM. We are. The anatomy of the trade.
The chode’s forever circling in a stir with the choice. Hum. Life’s weird that way. It tosses everything about in a humongous bag, the jewels amid the junk. We’re left sorting it all out, voting with our dollars, while hoping for a future. Meanwhile analysts refuse to mark even the radioactive as a “Sell.” And […]Read more
JULY 19, 2020. After close last Thursday Netflix put their Q2 facts on the table. Oops, it was really their suspicions that enraged. Shares were indeed priced for perfection. They promptly plunged roller-coaster style 11% in after-hours. But the fall actually began on Monday and didn’t abate until the close on Friday.
What’d the Los Gotos-based SVOD superstar say that enraged?
Simply the expectation of “2.5 million net new adds” for next quarter–Q3. They also said the COVID crush of new subs is “tapering off.” That did it.
O.K. Well, John Quincy Adams said “Facts are stubborn things.” And NFLX isn’t the only name in SVOD town. Like Tom Cruse said in The Color of Money, “Everybody’s doin’ it.” Disney’s doin’ it–since last November. So’s Hulu, AT&T with HBO MAX. Prime too. But what about the enduring pundit love for Disney? So Netflix v Disney, when “Facts Are Stub-Crazy Things. NFLX. Disney.”
JULY 6, 2020. When
the stock price of leading performers declines, they actually become cheaper. Nice. Dominion did that today, by more than 10%. When the share price of bad companies drop it’s called a value trap. Today, Monday, Dominion launched two press releases. They changed things. What did we learn when “Dominion Zags Down 10% & Green”
JULY 3, 2020. Some may call you mean. Some may call you rude. Some will stop calling you at all. Yet, the truth matters and a fall from a tall building doesn’t create more. You paid for more, not less. Consider it.
Power companies expect to be paid every month. Promises won’t do. But when you’ve paid to participate in the business, the results are all on you. Utils are said to be “defensive.” But from what? Market crashes? Capital loss? Earnings reversals? “No–it’s income” you say? Nice. Is it really income when your utility’s share price folds by double-digits? How about if their EPS is in reverse?
Since our market was shoved off a cliff and unemployment bounced into the stratosphere, precisely what have the utilities done for you? Have they kept the “defensive” promise? Were you “protected?” Or did you simply pay into a “POWER PLAY. Utilities. Protection?”